Herculean challenges & Lilliputian leaders

After seven months of being in power, now it is time to do business – serious and substantial, not mere sloganeering, like New Nepal, Discontinuity and Great Leap Forward. It is high time to do something concrete, not merely symbolic, like changing names of sites named after the royals.

At present nation-building revolves around three pillars: writing a new constitution, army integration and good governance. They also form the concluding part of a political change that started three years ago. However, indications so far give birth to skepticism rather than optimism.

The present politicians have a record of putting their interest before the interest of the nation. Maoists, who believe in and openly advocate for maximum power, will fight very hard to place their cadres in Nepal Army in the maximum numbers possible. This has been confirmed by their recent attempt to recruit fresh combatants. But a vengeful Nepali Congress (NC), which has a strong representation in the special committee that overseas this task, is in no mood to yield to the Maoists like during the days when Girija Prasad Koirala led the coalition. Not strangely, coalition partners of Maoists – CPN-UML and MJF – along with others will support NC on this issue.

That a unitary system is not necessarily an undemocratic, anti-inclusive or centralized system is a point totally missed in this country.

Writing a constitution will be even more difficult. Consensus or two-thirds majority is needed to pass it wholly or partially. This means no political force is in a position to singly dictate as the composition of the Constituent Assembly (CA) is fractured. So, all major parties have to work together. However, they possess poor co-workmanship skills. Maoists and NC, the top two parties, are poles apart in ideology, interests, class base and international links. So are regional parties like MJF and national parties like NC/CPN-UML. Their draft constitutions are full of serious differences, often irreconcilable. Also, differences in their top brass will trickle down to the grassroots and vice-versa. The resulting confrontation will be protracted, like YCL-Youth Force clash.

Parties will face powerful pressures from their respective constituencies not to compromise on basics such as autonomy or right to self determination (in case of Madhesi parties) or constitutional guarantee of social rights (in case of Maoists). This will create stalemate in the formulation of the constitution. CA members or cadres coming from different ethnic or regional backgrounds too will influence or derail party’s agenda, which the parties cannot ignore. With the strong rise of ethnic and regional forces, political parties have already become weaker. Those forces and others will intensify tactics like demonstrations, sit-ins and blockades to pressurize lawmakers and parties. Lawlessness and anarchy will further escalate.

More often than not constituent assemblies have failed to work or write constitutions in time. In our case, the latter seems almost certain. One can only pray that the former doesn’t happen. Credit for a few success stories like India and South Africa go to their selfless and enlightened leaders like Mahatma Gandhi and Nelson Mandela. Unfortunately this country is not blessed with such statesmen.

To weaken the monarchy and to win support from ethnic groups, short-sighted politicians in the past strongly advocated for a federal system based on ethnicity or regionalism. But no single ethnic group has majority or pre-dominance in any part of the country to make such ethnic states possible. Almost everywhere, ethnic demography or population-in-geography is mixed. Recent agitation of Tharus is enough to confirm this.

Yet the leaders are not ready to admit their mistakes, much less prepared for correction. That a unitary system is not necessarily an undemocratic, anti-inclusive or centralized system is a point totally missed in this country. There are far more unitary nation states in the world than there are federal. Many of them are industrial, inclusive, decentralized and successful democracies. But here, thanks to naïve politicians, any discussion on the (de)merits of ethnic federalism will only backlash. Poorly educated and morally bankrupt leaders won’t risk that. As far as federal states formed on basis other than ethnicity – like geography – is concerned, it will be acceptable to few and will serve little purpose. It will neither serve stakeholders nor the nation in general.

There is danger of another rebellion as gap between promises and performances of politicians deepen. In the past and during the CA elections, vote-hungry leaders promised everything to everybody such as employment, free education and health care, good governance, better service delivery, peace, federal republic, eradication of corruption, social and political inclusion, justice, equity, revision of treaty with India, economic development at ‘frog-leap’ pace and what not. Now, they will rebound. The ills of a ‘made in Nepal’ coalition such as the repeated cycle of intra- and inner-party clashes, misrule and misuse of state coffers, self and party interests and corruption will now disappoint and frustrate people. Alas, politicians do not see much beyond power and are little concerned about the possible dangers that lie ahead, let alone make sacrifices history begs from them.