Admit it or not, Constituent Assembly election without Mohan Baidya and co will not only be hard to hold, but also raise serious questions of legitimacy. Not all their demands are hard to accommodate, resignation of Khil Raj Regmi from his CJ post and postponing polls among them.
Reportedly, such accommodation efforts are underway. UCPN (Maoist) leader Narayankaji Shrestha and second rung leaders from Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have started “serious dialogue” with Mohan Baidya.[break]
Republica
The question is: Is it too late? CPN-Maoist has already missed the deadline for registration of PR candidates at Election Commission, and it will miss FPTP nomination deadline too, which expires October 4. The EC will have to extend the deadline for a few more days which will affect its jam-packed schedule. But it’s not impossible.
Latest developments have made it harder to isolate Baidya on moral grounds. Baidya’s party looks defeated and is pleading for help. It has taken the initiative to resume dialogue with HLPC. Also, it has been trying to impress on Nepali people and international community that it is not against election. The implied message of CPN-Maoist’s letter to the UN Secretary General is this: Allow us some more time, ask the government not to crush us by force. We are not running away from election.
Make no mistake. CPN-Maoist is not as weak as some believe. It still has an edge over many other parties. Its members lead simple lives, and are among the least tainted. Most importantly, the party has around 90 members from the erstwhile CA, and more than half of the wartime CC members. This makes it the third largest political force. Besides, it has the backing of the youth tagged “incompetent” by UNMIN and those who took voluntary retirement packages. The dash Maoist leaders can use them to cause mayhem during the election.
Giving Baidya some more days—how many depends on political negotiations—will do the country more good than harm. For one, it will give us enough time to understand what CPN-Maoist is up to. So far, the party has remained a mystery and has baffled the intelligentsia. It’s not a terrorist outfit, nor is it committed to democratic values. It has not officially backed down from the tactical line of “people’s revolt” based on the foundation of the ‘people’s war’ and a “people’s constitution”.
Its central committee decides to boycott and disrupt election, yet top leaders claim to support election route. Sometimes it talks about forging an alliance with Royalist forces, but it has also kept the prospect of unity with mother party open. Giving it a few more days will make the picture clearer.
If it wants to merge with mother party to take part in the polls, all good. But if it still sticks to disruption and boycott, many of its cadres will leave the party. Some have already joined UML, and others are returning to the mother party. If the process gains momentum, it will cut Baidya faction down to size, rendering it vulnerable to strong state response. CPN-Maoist will then have no power to launch major disruptive activities.
The option of using force and holding polls by keeping CPN-Maoist out is fraught with risks. CPN-Maoist and the alliance have issued alarming threats. While CPN-Maoist has threatened to abduct poll candidates and has declared ten-day nationwide strikes, its close ally Federal Limbuwan State Council has decided to bring the whole eastern region to a standstill. To contain these forces, the security forces will have to be mobilized from November 11 itself, the day the general strikes kick off.
The government will have to arrest hundreds and thousands of Baidya’s cadres. In the worst case, the Army may have to open fire on protestors, which could unleash further violence. In such terror-ridden environment, people are unlikely to challenge Maoist threat not to go to the polling stations to vote for pro-poll parties whose credibility is at an all time low.
Those opposed to the postponement option argue that doing so will push election into uncertainty. They claim CPN-Maoist’s goal is state capture through people’s revolt, and that they won’t come to election process at any cost. They also argue that the CJ’s resignation will lead to another constitutional crisis. But things are not that complicated. First, deferral is meant to ensure broader participation, not to seek an alternative to election.
Regarding the Maoist threat of state capture, UCPN (Maoist) is a living proof that such a radical method will never work in Nepal. One may recall that UCPN (Maoist) used to be vocal advocates of state capture until recently, now they sound more parliamentary than traditional parliamentary forces. CPN-Maoist’s rhetoric of state capture is meant only to placate hardliners within the party. It knows very well that this idea is untenable.
The CJ’s resignation won’t strip him of PM post and Baidya Maoists are ready to accept him as head of election government. The constitution can be amended to give Regmi the responsibility for election. As such, a broad consensus for his resignation can be built. In fact NC and UML were among the first to push for his resignation as CJ. This is small price in comparison to the mayhem Baidya alliance can potentially cause during November election.
Of course, there are risks to heeding Baidya’s call. Once there is an agreement to postpone polls, the alliance might push for sorting out constitutional issues through roundtable. But there is no harm in this as well. This will make constitution writing much easier for new CA, for it will already have laid the necessary ground. CPN-Maoist has left us no option but to defer polls. We need to confront them with the same strategy. We need to leave them no option but to join the election fray.
In an interview with Republica last week, former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel recounted how the first CA election had to be postponed three times to bring all the agitating parties on board. The demands of Madhesi forces were more untenable. They were pushing for radical state restructuring. “Yet we were able to bring them into election process by changing election schedule,” Pokharel said. Why can’t we do the same with CPN-Maoist? What stops us now? We asked. Pokharel answered candidly: “Because we have lost the power to decide on our behalf.”
His implication was that growing pressures from international community—mainly India, the US, and European powers to hold the election on November 19 irrespective of whether CPN-Maoist takes part in it—has made the situation more complicated. The Baidya faction nurses deep grudges with international community. It has been claiming that the international community and diplomatic missions have snubbed it.
And it has stated publicly umpteen times that November election is being held under foreign powers’ decree. It behooves the international actors to prove Baidya wrong. The onus is now upon them to convince Baidya faction that they are mere facilitators of election process, and they don’t dictate terms here. Perhaps Baidya Maoists will listen.
Author is with Republica’s
Op-ed desk. Views are personal
mbpoudyal@yahoo.com
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