There are more ominous predictions as well: President Dr Ram Baran Yadav will dissolve the Constituent Assembly (CA), dismiss the government and announce presidential rule, Maoists will launch a last push for state capture, and the country will be bracing for a civil war.
Each and every Nepali should have been eagerly waiting for May 28 since it is the date we are supposed to have the first republican constitution. And it is also the day we expect to wrap up the 240-year-long accursed history, and open up a new chapter for the future.
Instead, by now, May 28 has become a dreaded date—no one knows what will happen, but everyone is fearful that things might take a wrong turn. This says as much about our collective capacity as it says about our national character. We are good at turning every available opportunity into a nightmare.
But here is my not-so-sensational and perhaps a ‘boring’ prediction for May 28: We will have most likely written our constitution by that time. If not, we will have extended the deadline by another six months or a year. There will be no presidential rule, no Maoist revolt, and no signs of country heading towards a civil strife, let alone a civil war. Instead, things will be normal; they will be, in a mundane sense, as usual.
Missing the constitutional deadline alone cannot warrant the president’s intervention in politics. So long as the political parties are ready to play their part, even if they are miles away from reaching a consensus, the president will have no role in politics.
Let me begin by explaining why there won’t be presidential rule. President Yadav is no Gyanendra—greedy for power and with an exaggerated sense of historical ‘responsibility’ to fix things in a country unified by his ancestors but gone astray due to gentle submission of his brother to the wishes of his ‘subjects’. Nor is he Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who launched a bloody insurgency and once dreamt of capturing the state and imposing an authoritarian rule. President Yadav is basically a simple man, a committed democrat, who stood firm against monarchical rule and offered fierce resistance against Dahal’s raw ambition, ill-conceived as it often is, to illegitimately establish his man at the army headquarters.
The president cannot and should not dissolve the CA or dismiss the government, and impose a presidential rule if there is no constitution on May 28. Doubts have arisen about his intentions also because of a controversial article written by his legal advisor (and published in this newspaper) suggesting that if the constitution is not written by May 28, the CA and the government will lose their legitimacy and the only functional institution on that day will be the presidency. The president’s recent media interviews have also not done him any favor. Less media coverage is always good for the president.
There is only one condition on which the president can act unilaterally. If the state institutions have disintegrated and collapsed, if the political parties are still fighting and are stoking anarchy, if the society is headed towards a civil war and if the government can no longer function, it’s only then the presidency should step in.
Unless we have gotten into such anarchy, missing the constitutional deadline alone cannot warrant the president’s intervention in politics. So long as the political parties are ready to play their part, even if they are miles away from reaching a consensus, the president will have no role in politics.
Based on my past encounters with the president and his past actions, I am reasonably sure that he understands this very well. If the president sought written request from 18 parties to stay the unconstitutional sacking of the then Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal by Dahal, what makes us believe that he would act unilaterally on such a complicated constitutional/political question?
To act unilaterally means going against the parties in government, including Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, and against the people and international community. To do so, one must be as foolhardy and as arrogant as Gyanendra, which, President Yadav is not.
The president will at least need the recommendation of the government and/or consent of the major parties—including the NC and UML—to impose a presidential rule. Why will the government or the parties give a green signal to the president so long as they are in charge? There is only one condition in which the government is likely to seek the president’s support and that too to impose emergency rule: If the Maoists launch a revolt and create utter chaos in the streets.
A million dollar question, then, is: Will the Maoists do so? They are unlikely to. Babauram Bhattarai is completely against it. Comrade Kiran and Co maybe game for it, but Dahal is a shrewd man and understands the limitation of any kind of rabble-rousing.
I have a different assessment of Dahal’s strategy and options. Having seen a little chance of getting back to power anytime soon, Dahal instead chose to consolidate his hold in the party. That’s why he abandoned Bhattarai and once again became the leader of Kiran’s camp that has gained significant grounds in the Maoist party recently. By whipping the nationalism fervor, Dahal is actually trying to energize and rally his disillusioned party base and attract the ‘nationalist’ constituency in his party’s fold. He knows for sure that ‘nationalism’ still sells big time in Nepali politics. To sum up, Dahal was actually doing the “party work” (to reassure the frustrated party cadres and expand his party base by attracting more nationalists) while he had free time away from the power corridors of Singha Durbar.
What will Maoists do now? Dahal sees the High Level Political Mechanism as a real chance to get back to power. But the Maoists will remain confused for sometime about what should be the party’s future course. How long will that confusion remain is uncertain but what is certain is that they will eventually come to the negotiating table with an aim to strike a deal. The deal could be to conclude the peace process and to write the constitution by May 28 or to seek an extension for another six months.
May 28, therefore, still offers hope, not fear.
ameetdhakal@gmail.com
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