The so-called “shirt-sleeves” meeting between the leaders of the world’s largest and second largest economies was held in California on June 7-8. This informal two-day summit between president Obama and president Xi attracted world attention. A Harvard political scientist, Joseph S Nye Jr was quoted by David Sanger (New York Times, June 10) as saying that “the California meeting was the most important one between an American president and a Chinese leader in 40 years, since Nixon and Mao.” [break]
Nevertheless, as opined by Minghao Zhao, a research fellow at the China Center for Contemporary World Affairs, in his article in Project Syndicate (June 7, 2013) Sino-American relations are far more sophisticated than they were in 1972, considering deepened economic ties.
The role played by economic factors in shaping China-US bilateral relationship has been illustrated by Michael Auslin in his Foreign Policy piece “Xi Is Not Ready,” where he presented the figures of their trade with each other. He contends that America is economically dependent on China with nearly $400 billion bilateral trade each year, and close to $1 trillion debt to Beijing.
Photo: AP
In a speech delivered in Tokyo (2009) during his first presidential trip to China, President Obama had said, “I know there are many who question how the US perceives China’s emergence. In an interconnected world, power does not need to be a zero-sum game, and nations need not fear the success of another.” The sentiment expressed about four years ago when Hu Jintao was at the helm of Chinese politics was still prevalent at Obama’s meeting with president Xi.
According to Jia Qingguo, Professor and Associate Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University, the purpose of the summit was not to produce any new agreement. He had suggested through his Foreign Affairs feature that the end of the California meeting should be to set a positive tone for future Sino-US relations. Chinese-American relations have seen quite a few ups and downs since they were normalized in 1972.
In the run up to the meeting, many experts had presented their opinion on what the summiteers should focus on. One of them, Harvard Kennedy School of Government professor Graham T Allison Jr, had cautioned that the two leaders should not fall prey to Thucydides Trap. In his New York Times article “Obama and Xi Must Think Broadly to Avoid a Classic Trap” Graham recalled history, depicting how the interests of a ruling great power sit at odds with those of an emerging power.
Obviously, America is the established superpower and China is seeking an equal role in global governance, especially given its impressive annual economic growth (currently 7 percent) that has added to its international clout.
Professor Allison was talking about a historical event that occurred two millennia ago in Greece. He has drawn an analogy of that situation with the power relationship between China and the US. Thucydides, an Athenian General and historian, had offered a brilliant insight into the cause of the Peloponnesian War. Graham quoted Thucydides, who wrote; “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Graham provides an additional example of 20th century Europe, when the rapidly rising Germany challenged the existing power Britain in 1913, which led to the First World War (1914-18). Notwithstanding these historical facts, Graham Allison points out instances where rivalries between established and emerging powers do not necessarily result in military confrontation.
He offers the example of Britain, the global power of 19th century, and the US, a rising power of that era. The latter eclipsed the former without war. The Anglo-American rapprochement emerged from a long period of mistrust and hostility that stands in contrast to modern perceptions of their cultural similarities, mutual affection and shared interests. But he believes that the peaceful outcome was possible due to some factors absent in Sino-US relations, which is why he seemed doubtful of whether Obama and Xi could escape the classic trap.
Stephen Walt, another Harvard professor, had predicted before the Obama-Xi meeting that good rapport between the two leaders won’t prevent Sino-US rivalry from intensifying in the future. He argued that the two states’ core strategies are at odds, and therefore the meeting is unlikely to stop China and America from confronting each other.
Contrary to Allison’s suspicion and Walt’s pessimism, David Sanger reports in the NY Times that president Obama and the new Chinese leader, who is more confident than his predecessor, have declared their determination to keep disputes over cyber espionage and territorial claims in the Pacific from descending into Cold War mentality, and to avoid the pitfalls of the Thucydides syndrome.
The views of the new Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai, published through his recent interview to Foreign Affairs Managing Director Jonathan Tepperman, are relevant here. Foreign Affairs has quoted the envoy as saying, “In the past, when one big country developed very fast and gained international influence, it was seen as being in a kind of zero-sum game vis-à-vis the existing powers. This often led to conflict or even war. Now, there is a determination both in China and the US to not allow history to repeat itself.”
In tune with the above, both Obama and Xi have pledged to build a new model of cooperation. As the purpose of their meeting was not to produce any deals but to create an environment of mutual trust which should avoid plunging the world’s existing and emerging great powers into future conflict, the meeting can be considered a great leap forward in diplomacy.
The author was Foreign-Relations Advisor to former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal
thapahira16@gmail.com
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