Nepal is more inscrutable than many other societies for reasons of our historical evolution, as a result of which many visitors fail to give due recognition and respect to the public’s mature understanding of peace and democracy. This, after all, is a populace which produced the People’s Movement of April 2006, a remarkable mass demonstration for pluralism unprecedented in all of Asia over the last several decades. In the current transitional context, there is a tendency among some to believe that half-a-democracy and a half-peace should be acceptable, but such an evolution would be rejected by the citizenry. It is for this reason that the call of national civil society and international community should alike be for “a democratic constitution” rather than merely “a new constitution”. One would have thought that that was a given, but not anymore.
Constitution-Making
It is becoming clear that the new constitution will not be promulgated by the deadline of May 28, such is the polarization between the Maoists and the other political parties. There is little possibility of combatant management (integration and rehabilitation) between now and then, which means that the non-Maoist parties have no incentive to proceed with the drafting. Meanwhile, the Maoists have placed landmines along the road to a democratic constitution, by loudly rejecting the concept of pluralism; seeking to place the judiciary under the legislature; promoting ‘ethnic federalism’ with preferential political rights to a handful of communities; and so on. Outside the Constituent Assembly (CA), the marginalized communities of Nepal are suspicious and restive, seeking guarantees within the new supreme law. Amidst such political polarization looms a political vacuum that could lead to horrendous consequences, which is why the party leaders must work toward a consensus to extend the deadline of the Assembly.
HLPM
The High-Level Political Mechanism (HLPM) was initially hailed as an attempt to break the deadlock in the peace process and constitution-writing. The hope was that the three bigwigs – GP Koirala, JN Khanal and PK Dahal – would be able to eviscerate the anti-democratic provisions from the constitutional draft and also specify the all-important number of Maoist ex-combatants for integration. Hopes of the HLPM have by now evaporated, because it started work by trying to bring down the present government, making a mockery of the CA, which also functions as parliament. Besides, the HLPM faces opposition from the second rung in each of the three parties represented. The stature and credibility of Mr Koirala could have been useful to untie the knots of constitution-making and combatant management, but he is now unbelievably reduced to a sideline player, having lost face in-party, nationally as well as internationally due to manifest nepotism. Mr Koirala’s self-destruction is a blow to Nepal’s peace-and-democracy process.
Government
The government of Madhav Kumar Nepal was weakened the moment Mr Koirala foisted his daughter Sujata on the cabinet, which then attracted junior appointments from all the other parties. Prime Minister Nepal is sincere, but inexplicably prefers ceremonial activities to providing a confident and hands-on leadership to the country. The image of a diffident caretaker prime minister is unfortunate, given that Mr Nepal’s government was formed through legitimate parliamentary process and, as a bonus, enjoys support of both Beijing and New Delhi. Mr Nepal should know that good intentions are not enough. To cite an example, he committed himself before human rights activists to take up ‘emblematic cases’ of conflict-era atrocities, but has not been able to lift a finger in that direction. Instead, the Nepal Army thumbs its nose at the Supreme Court on the matter of delivering an officer to answer charges before a district court, and the prime minister acts helpless against this blatant attack on rule of law. After some years of humiliation, the army generals have taken strength from the general fear of Maoists´ resurgence, but a prime minister with full democratic credentials should have been able to resist this tug toward the right. Elsewhere, too, the government is a mute witness as local government disappears, post-conflict reconstruction and rehabilitation is stalled, and a loot of the commons proceeds from mountain to plain.
While there is some blame to be shared all around, the Nepali peace process is faltering primarily because of the Maoist leadership’s unwillingess/inability to convince their cadre about the need for demobilization.
Human Security
It has to be said that the law and order situation has improved over the last year, and one must not allow recent media hysteria to cloud this reality. Home Minister Bhim Rawal is without doubt a better performer than the previous two incumbents. The recent targeted killing of two prominent businessmen (who also had media interests) points to the existing situation of impunity, the easy availability of small firearms, and the protection of criminality by political parties. But for a proper perspective, one must also consider the resumption of night bus services, the drop in highway closures, and the improved sense of safety amongst the population of the middle-eastern Tarai. If need be, the present government must be brought down as it loses the support of the coalition partners amidst loss of credibility, but it should not be the result of a misplaced media campaign. The most depressing record of human insecurity today, in fact, is to be found amidst conflict-era victims, who cumulatively represent a mountain of distress that has hardly been addressed four full years after the guns fell silent. In the districts, journalists and human rights defenders suffer under conditions of extreme impunity, and self-censorship is rife.
Peace Process
The Nepali peace process could perhaps have been held up as exemplary, a success for all parties including the United Nations, but it is faltering. While there is some blame to be shared all around, the primary reason lies in the Maoist leadership’s unwillingess/inability to convince their cadre about the need for demobilization. Instead, the Maoist leaders have competed with each other to sell the unrealizable dream of ‘full integration’ to their cadre. The work of the Special Committee meant to oversee the disbandment of the cantonments has now come to a standstill. The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has not lived up the expectations of the host population, in its attempt to promote an artificial sense of even-handedness. Today, the government of the land seeks UNMIN’s assistance to ensure that money meant for Maoist combatants is going where it is intended, but the Mission does not cooperate, indicating the understanding among some in the international community that this is a less-than-legitimate government.
Maoist Strategy
Many see the Maoist leaders as master strategists, but they seem mostly to be reacting to issues that emanate from deep divisions within the party. This, indeed, was how the party lost its government last May, regardless of the gloss put on it for public consumption. The entire time since early May 2009 has been spent trying to get back into government leadership, in manners that has brought the parliament and country to a halt, impacted the economy, and affected the constitution-writing. Lately, the party has also dabbled in ultra-nationalism and is using the language of the ultra right. When it comes to transitional justice and accountability for past atrocities, the Nepal Army generals and Maoist leaders have started nodding at each other. Speaking of strategy, the Maoist leadership seems intent on using the cantonments and the undemocratic language in the constitutional drafts as bargaining chips to get into government, but do they realize that a situation is fast developing where the other parties may not want to deal at all? Whether it is constitution-writing or combatant management, the schisms within the UCPN (Maoist) leadership is the singlemost important element to understand – and we ignore it at our own peril.
Up Ahead
An interesting evolution is occurring as we speak, where the extreme left and the emergent, fundamentalist right wing of Nepali politics is finding common ground, in ultra-nationalism, buffalo-worship, gun-culture, non-participatory development, and the rejection of the principles of transitional justice. There is a concerted attempt to create political anarchy with the goal of emptying the social-democratic middle ground. While the Maoists would hope to fill this vacated space, they fail to realize that regional geopolitics favors a right wing rather than ultra left regime - 30 years of the Panchayat proves the point. The urgent need amidst all of this is to work to disband the cantonments, which will provide psycho-political relief to the people, and to extend the deadline of the CA. A show of good faith by the UCPN (Maoist) in abandoning their violent accourtments would deliver a civilian political party rather than today’s as-yet politico-military organization. Such a conversion would ensure the Maoists’ long innings in politics, and allow them to work for social justice for the long term. At that point, the country would have a national unity government including the former rebels and all the political parties represented in the CA. That show of good faith must come from the UCPN (Maoist), before matters get out of hand.
kanakd@himalmag.com
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