Although the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a slight delay in the onset of the monsoon in the south Indian state of Kerala, the Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD) in Nepal says moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean, which result in heavy rainfall particularly south of the Tibetan plateau, will enter the Himalayan nation most probably on time (around June 10) this season. [break]
´A delay in the onset of the monsoon of five to seven days is not abnormal,´ said Rajendra Shrestha, senior meteorologist at MFD. ´Even if the monsoon becomes active in Nepal a week after the normal date, it will not have much impact on agriculture and hydropower.´
IMD has forecast that the southwestern monsoon will hit the coast of Kerala on June 3. The monsoon normally arrives in Kerala on June 1 and advances northward. It takes about 10 days for it to reach eastern Nepal. Over the next five days, the monsoon becomes full-blown across almost the whole country. ´Compared to last year, we are hopeful of a stronger monsoon this year,´ said Shrestha. Last year"s monsoon was considered dry, which badly affected the production of crops in Nepal.
Thursday"s rainfall, which left many Kathmandu Valley roads deluged for hours, was a high for May, said MFD on Friday. MFD recorded 100.5 mm of rain in the Valley on Thursday. By comparison, MFD had recorded 73.3 mm of rain on May 29, 1990, the highest for May till then.
With Thursday"s massive downpour, the amount of rainfall received by the Valley this May has surpassed the average of 123.6 mm. The Valley had received 196.5 mm rainfall by Friday evening.
Thursday"s heavy rainfall added to hopes of an early and timely monsoon, which is vital for the country"s agriculture-based economy. ´The nature of Thursday"s downpour was akin to that of the monsoon rains,´ senior meteorologist Mani Ratna Shakya said. ´It is a sign of a good monsoon.´
Earlier in April, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), an annual meeting of the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) which was held in Kathmandu this year, had concluded that the 2013 monsoon would be "within the normal range with a slight tendency toward above average". SASCOF forecast that the spatial coverage of the 2013 monsoon would be "below average in some areas of the northwestern and southern parts of the subcontinent.´
´The recent pre-monsoon activities have bolstered SASCOF"s conclusion,´ said Shakya.
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