KATHMANDU, July 18: Only 194 votes were cast against former prime minister Puspa Kamal Dahal when he sought a vote of confidence in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR) recently. If all lawmakers had attended the HoR meeting that day, as many as 208 votes would be cast against him. Given Dahal's ousting with such a large number of non-cooperative votes, it has become a matter of confusion whether newly-elected PM KP Sharma Oli will be able to secure that number in his favor.

After Dahal was relieved of his post of PM on July 12, a new question has arisen: Will CPN-UML Chairman Oli, who replaced Dahal as the PM on July 14, get the support of 208 MPs, when he seeks a vote of confidence in the HoR on Sunday?

The possibility of PM Oli getting the votes of all MPs who voted against Dahal is now gradually decreasing. The parties that had voted against Dahal, including the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) Nepal, and independent MP Yogendra Mandal, seem to be in confusion about whether they will vote for Oli.

RPP lawmakers and independent lawmaker Mandal have taken the bench of the opposition, while JSP has chosen to stay in the government. Both parties have no participation in the government. Despite not participating in the government, one MP from Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) said that they will give a vote of confidence to the Oli-led government. However, Upendra Yadav-led JSP Nepal, despite being on the ruling side in parliament, is angry with the Oli-led government for being excluded in the Cabinet.

Lawmaker of JSP Prakash Adhikari said that the decision has not been finalized regarding giving a vote of confidence to the Oli-led government. “We have not received any information regarding the decision to seek a vote of confidence in HoR from the newly-formed government. He will decide if we are giving a vote of confidence to Oli after we get a message from them. For now we are not thinking on that matter,” he said.

The RPP has 14 and JSP Nepal has five members in the HoR. They have all together 20 votes, including one independent lawmaker Mandal, in the HoR. If they decide to vote against Oli, he will not get the support of the parties which made the count of votes against Dahal 208. In that case, Oli’s votes will be reduced to 189.

Oli must get the support of 184 MPs out of 275 in order to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament. The government, formed with the aim of amending the constitution, is likely to achieve this majority. However, if even one fringe party decides not to give a vote of confidence, the government will fall into the danger zone and will not be able to secure a two-thirds majority.

In the parties that have the possibility of giving a vote of confidence to PM Oli, there are 189 MPs altogether, including 88 from the Nepali Congress, 78 from the CPN-UML, seven from the JSP, six from Janamat Party, four from Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, four from the NUP, one from Rastriya Janamorcha Party, and one Independent MP, Amresh Kumar Singh. It is to be noted that the suspended lawmaker Top Bahadur Rayamajhi from the UML and the Speaker Devraj Ghimire are not allowed to vote.

And, 14 MPs from the RPP, five from the JSP Nepal, 32 from the CPN (Maoist Center), 21 from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), 10 from the CPN (Unified Socialist), and one from Aam Janata Party, totaling 84 votes, have been assured against Oli.

As things stand now, Oli will seemingly get 189 votes in favor of the vote of confidence and 84 against it - altogether 273 votes. Even if the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party stays neutral, the total maximum vote count will reach 274 votes. But since Speaker Ghimire does not vote and MP Rayamajhi of the UML has been suspended and is therefore unable to vote, a maximum of only 273 votes are likely to be cast in parliament.

 
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