Nepal is energy poor. This is corroborated by the fact that it ranks as 74 out of the 80 countries in the Energy Development Index while other South Asian countries like India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh rank 41, 42, 44 and 48 respectively. One out of four people in Nepal have no access to electricity and depend on biomass like firewood, agriculture and animal waste for energy production. Nepal is also known to have one of the lowest energy consumption per capita in the world.
Eight percent of our energy demands are met by the fossil fuels that we import solely from the Indian Oil Corporation and only a miniscule one percent of our demands is met by electricity. Of this tiny fraction, 96% of the electricity has been estimated to be generated from hydropower in the past. Given such trends, Nepal considered itself to be almost carbon neutral, at least in this sector.
However, things have taken a turn for the worst ever since the Ministry of Energy declared that Nepal was in an energy crisis mode this year. In the aftermath of the earthquake that left various hydropower plants dysfunctional and due to the scarcity of diesel fuel required to run generators during the Indian blockade, the energy crisis was more severe than ever in the past few months. Most of Nepal bore evidence to this and forest covers began disappearing quickly in the lack of viable alternatives.
This February, KP Oli sealed Nepal's dirty fate when he and Modi jointly inaugurated the 400 kV Dhalkebar-Muzzaffarpur transmission line that has been predicted to transmit some 600MV of coal-powered electricity to Nepal's electric grid by 2017 from the Kanti Thermal Power Station of Bihar. Given that Nepal, as one of the smaller nations in the world in terms of land area, is known to boast around 2.27% of the world's water resources in the form of glaciers and rivers and given that its steep terrain has been identified to be among the most suitable for hydroelectricity generation, the current fate of Nepal – at least energy-wise – is a big shame.
Nepal's theoretical hydropower potential has been estimated to be around 83,000 MW out of which 43,000 MW has been deemed to be technically and economically feasible. This amount of energy would not only meet all the energy requirements within the country but would also create an energy surplus which could be exported to India and China.
However, since their inception, many hydropower projects in Nepal have remained mired in a series of never-ending obstacles and controversies. Many ambitious mega projects have fallen victim to local wrath, transitional politics, lack of adequate financing and lack of financial security from natural calamities and from the effects of climate change. The International Finance Corporation has identified key areas such as these and other economical, technical and legal issues as being responsible for deterring foreign investment in this sector of Nepal.
Mega hydropower projects require immense investment and commitment and usually take years to be completed. When projects like these are paired with a government that is known to be one of the most corrupt, inept and apathetic to the problems of its citizens, problems are bound to arise.
As of 2012, the total installed capacity of hydroelectric power in Nepal is around 750 MW, which is less than two percent of our actual capacity. Meanwhile, maximum demands have been known to exceed 1000 MW in Nepal. The government has dealt with such energy gaps in the past by either rationing electricity via load-shedding or by importing dirty energy from India.
In the fiscal year 2014/15, electricity import from India rose by 24% and accounted for 27% of Nepal's total energy supply. This figure is bound to increase drastically this fiscal year given the most recent Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) which aims to import almost 50% of our electricity requirement from India. However, with electricity demand increasing by seven to nine percent annually, this is unlikely to solve even a little, if any, of our problems.
With the 80 MW or so coursing through the Dhalkebar-Muzzaffarpur transmission line in 2016, the projected decrease in winter load-shedding has been by an abysmal two hours. By 2017, however, Oli hopes to completely eradicate load-shedding.
Many skeptics question this logic. Given, that Bihar is as, if not more, prone to energy starvation during the dry months as Nepal, it is hard to believe that India would send so much energy our way while leaving its own people high and dry. A likelier scenario is that the Kanti Thermal Power Station will direct the energy towards its own people once the dry season hits. Another matter to be contended with is whether thethermal station, which has the current capacity of only 220 MW (with an additional capacity of 390 MW still under construction), will be able to fulfill the short term agreement by supplying Nepal with 600 MW of electricity by 2017.
Today, Nepalis are increasingly reliant on diesel generators – which are notorious for their noxious emissions – to somewhat meet their energy requirements. The recent agreement is bound to limit this to a certain extent. However, it is prudent to note that coal is significantly more polluting than diesel. Coal has a relatively lower hydrogen to carbon ratio compared to diesel which means that it produces more carbon dioxide per unit of energy than diesel does.
Diesel is also more refined than coal, in that it has components like sulfur and heavy metals removed. On the other hand, combustion of coal-fired power plants produces a significantly high amount sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matters, heavy metals and other toxins. Such emissions not only lead to smog and acid rain but are also responsible for various respiratory, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular issues in humans. Coal mining is also an extremely hazardous process that causes the release of gases like methane, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxides in the atmosphere. All over the world, coal has been characterized to be a huge contributor to global warming.
The reasons to avoid dependency on Indian coal are many. However, with the most recent PPA in place, the fate of Nepal has been linked to the whims of India even more powerfully than before the blockade. Despite outwards aspirations towards self-sufficiency, the Oli government, in giving no importance to diversifying petroleum trade to China and buying even more electricity from India, has now left Nepal reliant on Indian powers for not just oil but also electricity.
The development of any mega-hydroelectric project in Nepal will definitely be a herculean task. While contemplating such large projects, the social and environmental costs – which can be quite substantial – must be taken into account. Extensive studies must be done to ensure that the surrounding ecosystem is not damaged irreparably and studies should also focus on how the locals will be affected and adequate compensation and relocation must be arranged accordingly. Most of such large projects in Nepal are run off river type and have no reservoirs. This means that while energy production is high in the monsoon season, it is deficit in the rainy season. Thus, reservoirs must be a necessary aspect to any meaningful hydropower development project in the future.
However, development of such huge projects is not the only way in which we can develop sustainable energy producing infrastructures in Nepal. Many micro hydro projects and improved water mills are cropping up in various corners of Nepal that have been used to provide energy in energy starved areas of Nepal. With Nepal being identified to have greater solar potential than Germany, one of the world's leading nation in the area, the government should continue to subsidize and promote the installation of solar panels in every rural and urban household. Biogas, which is being intensively promoted by the Clean Development Mechanism, is another promising arena for Nepal.
Biomass burning in rural areas and coal powered electricity generation in urban ones are only short term options for Nepal. Despite its negligible role in Nepal's energy sector in the present scenario, the renewable energy potential of Nepal in the future is undeniable and all too real. This potential has been one of the topics of continued discussions and research for decades now. Now it's time to put our money where our mouth is.
sneha.pandey@hotmail.com
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