As in the 2008 election, the UCPN (Maoist) and the CPN (UML) seem to be in a neck-to-neck race to send their own representative to the new CA. Nepali Congress (NC), which has never won any election in Sunsari-1, also seems to have consolidated its position. [break]
However, it would be no surprise if even the Federal Socialist Party Nepal (FSPN) wins, riding a new wave of identity-based politics. Other candidates from the fringe parties are not in any position to pull surprises.
Sunsari-1 has always been a CPN(UML) stronghold. In 1992, Manmohan Adhikari, then chairman of the party, won from this constituency in the first general election after the restoration of democracy in 1990. Lila Shrestha Subba in 1994 and Kunta Sharma in 1999 also won from this constituency. However, in 2008, CPN(UML) candidate Manoj Kumar Menyangbo was defeated by Kiran Rai, a Maoist candidate.
But the Maoists are now divided between UCPN (Maoist) and CPN-Maoist, and Rai is now with the latter. UCPN (Maoist), however, claims the split is unlikely to have much impact on the poll outcome. "Only a few comrades have left us," said Rai, a member of the Kochila State Council of UCPN (Maoist). "But many more have joined us."
CPN (UML) wants to regain its position by cashing in on a sense of betrayal by the UCPN (Maoist) among the landless squatters of Dharan. "They (Maoists) promised us a lot," said Khamba Singh Gurung, district committee member of CPN(UML), "But, they did not fulfill the promises. So, the people are again with us."
This time, NC also is hopeful like never before. "Unlike in 2008, the two factions within the party have overcome their differences," said Bikash Acharya, joint secretary of NC´s Sunsari chapter. "In addition, the poll prospects of CPN(UML) are likely to be affected by the rise of FSPN. And, people are in no mood to give UCPN (Maoist) a second chance."
Squatters have big say
As in every previous poll, the results of the CA election in Sunsari-1 will certainly depend on which way the landless squatters vote. Therefore, all the major political parties are trying to outsmart each other in winning the trust of landless squatters.
UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who made a brief stop in Dharan en route to Tehrathum, tried to win the hearts of the squatters, saying his party had already initiated a process to provide them land ownership certificates. "We will give them land ownership certificates," said Dahal at a gathering at local Bhanuchowk, Thursday“ "If not, we will provide them jobs."
However, the landless squatters are yet to decide which party to support. "Whichever party promises us land ownership certificates will get our support," said Kumar Karki, eastern regional secretary of the Society for Preservation of Shelter and Habitation in Nepal (SPOSH-Nepal), an umbrella organization of Nepal´s landless squatters. "But, unlike in the past, we are seeking a written agreement this time. We no longer want to exchange our votes just for unwritten promises."
Karki claims that nearly one-third of the total of 65,795 voters in Sunsari-1, which includes Dharan Municipality and adjacent Panchakanya VDC, live in various landless squatter settlements. A majority of voters living in the landless squatter settlements will vote whichever party SPOSH-Nepal wants them to.
Hari Bahadur Bhandari, 60, who has been living in a landless squatter settlement in Dharan-13 for the last 15 years, says he does not even know who is contesting the election from which party. But he is certain he will vote. "It is my right to vote," said Bhandari. "I will not stay at home on election day. I will go vote for whichever party everyone in my neighborhood chooses unanimously."
Most landless squatters think exactly like Bhandari. They are sure they will vote but they´re not yet sure whom to vote for. That is why they are likely to be influenced by SPOSH-Nepal. There are also a few other organizations of landless squatters. But, these have little hold among landless squatters.
Ethnic factor
The ethnic factor can also influence the outcome of the CA poll. All major political parties have fielded candidates from the ethnic communities. While UCPN (Maoist) has fielded Muksam Hang Menyangbo, CPN (UML) has picked Krishna Kumar Rai. NC has chosen Chandra Prasad Shrestha while FSPN has picked Dhyan Bahadur Rai.
Kirat Rai Yayokkha (KRY), an umbrella organization of the Rais, a majority community in Dharan, is likely to support the FSPN candidate. Most key members of KRY Sunsari are with FSPN. Kirat Yakthung Chumlung (KYC), an umbrella organization of Limbus, the biggest community after the Rais and Newar, appears neutral, though.
NC-Sunsari insiders say all the Newars of Dharan, disappointed by the victory of either a Rai or a Limbu in every election, have reached a gentlemen´s agreement to help Shrestha win the poll this time. They also formed a Newar Unity Society (NUS) right after the dissolution of the first CA. Many see this as an attempt to unite all the Newars for Shrestha´s victory.
However, NUS president Raju Man Shrestha says they will just urge the Newars to vote for Shrestha. "We are not in position make all the Newars to vote for Shrestha," says he. "They are free to choose whom to support."
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