First, the agriculture sector, which is the mainstay of Nepali economy and provides employment to two-third of population, will be affected as most farmers in affected districts are deprived of shelter and lost the cattle that provided for their livelihood. The number of houses destroyed is around 300,000, but the number of cattle lost is still to be accounted. This will create a situation where many farmers will be compelled to make several trips to district headquarters and relief camps to get government hand-outs in order to rebuild shelters and feed themselves. This means foregone opportunity cost in cultivation of main crops like rice and maize. The death of family members and swathe of wounded persons add to the agony. Timely rain will favor crops, but would make life of farmers miserable as they may not be able manage roofs over their heads. On the other hand, late monsoon may have adverse effects on crops but will give farmers some time to rebuild their shelters.The contribution of manufacturing sector in the gross domestic product has been declining over the past two decades; and has causal relationship with declining investment climate. The decade-long Maoist insurgency did colossal damage to national economy, through loss of 17,000 lives and damages to physical and social infrastructures. The peace process is still not completed. The demand from some political parties to federate the country on the basis of ethnicity is pushing the country into new conflict. Economic damages ushered by political conflict have been further aggravated by the recent earthquake.
Service sector contributes over 50 percent to Nepali economy. However, the tremors have badly impacted various services including tourism. Months of April and May are best suited for travel, trekking and mountaineering, but this time around all hotels and tourist lodges in Kathmandu, Pokhara and Chitwan, also known as 'golden triangle' of tourism, are almost empty. Banking and insurance sector would be hard hit as investment in multi-storey apartments in Kathmandu are all funded by commercial banks and there is little chance of repayment of loan by borrowers. Due to massive damages of old houses in Kathmandu, students coming from outside will find difficult to rent a room and they may be compelled to discontinue study or shift to campuses outside valley. Destruction of school buildings, health posts and water systems in hard hit districts could push many people back into the shadow of extreme poverty.
However, even amidst this gloom, there are silver linings. We have an opportunity to develop new vision and provide decent life to all citizens. This calls for proactive and practical approaches in dealing with post-crisis situation. In the first place, government should be caring; it should provide immediate relief in the form of food and medicine, and then shelter to affected people and assure that their safety and security will be taken care of. This would require developing cost effective but quake resistant houses for rural communities and a comprehensive plan for housing and settlement for all communities.
In the urban and metropolitan areas, roads must be widened with the provisions of trunk roads and feeder roads with adequate space for flow of vehicles. There should be more open spaces and greenery. The building code should be reviewed in context of the devastation and the new code strictly enforced and its implementation as strictly monitored.
Construction of public buildings particularly government offices, schools, health posts and community halls must factor in earthquakes and other natural disasters during their design and construction phase. Government should look to develop semi-urban type of settlements wherever land pooling is possible. This will help provide people services and utilities in an integrated manner, saving on costs and making services more effective.
Despite the tragedy, people are helping each other. This is the inherent trait of Nepalis who are famous for their heroic deeds. Government has limited resources and will not able to meet all the post-quake demands. Donation of Rs 200,000 each for those whose houses have been destroyed has been announced, but it needs to be supported with appropriate designs and construction materials. The engineers and architects must provide designs and guidelines for such houses which will have to be handed out along with the financial assistance. Key infrastructures for tourism and other services need to be restored promptly.
This is an opportunity to build a new Nepal, as the country slowly emerges from two big crises in the past two decades. Nepalis have demonstrated courage and honesty in the worst of times. This momentum need to be maintained. Development partners and well-wishers of Nepal around the world have pledged to support us in the current crisis. Now the government should swing into action and try to bring together all sections of society including political parties and social organizations. Policy and institutional reforms should be aiming at creating conducive environment for foreign direct investment, technology and development assistance that could complement the nation-building at large.
The author is former Commerce Secretary, Government of Nepal
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