KATHMANDU, Oct 5: Rain is expected to continue across Nepal for the next week, with precipitation likely to intensify over the next few days and affect many parts of the country until just before Ghatasthapana.
Meteorologist Binod Pokharel said rainfall is likely to increase from Sunday, October 5 (Asoj 19), and remain widespread through Tuesday.
“I had forecast a week ago that Nepal would receive rain this week, and the rainy spell has already begun. We are now entering a period when rainfall is likely to increase,” Pokharel said, adding that rain was recorded across many areas overnight.
According to Pokharel, most parts of Koshi Province received rain overnight, while several areas of Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini and as far west as Sudurpaschim also recorded rainfall. Thunderstorms and lightning were reported in parts of southern Nepal.
“Rain has been recorded across much of the country from Karnali to Koshi, although activity has so far been relatively limited in Sudurpaschim,” he said in a video statement.
The Meteorological Forecasting Division said Chandragadhi in Jhapa recorded the highest rainfall during the one-hour period ending at 6:26 am Sunday, receiving 23.4 millimetres.
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Light to moderate rain was occurring at one or two places in Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki provinces and at a few places in Lumbini Province. The division said it was continuously monitoring the situation.
Pokharel said Dhakeri in Banke received more than 70 millimetres of rain within two hours on Sunday morning.
What is causing the rain?
Pokharel attributed the rainfall to a weak westerly system and upper atmospheric circulation that has repeatedly generated low pressure systems around Nepal.
Moisture is entering Nepal from the Mediterranean region through the westerlies, while additional moisture is arriving from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Some monsoon influence also remains over eastern Nepal.
Rain is likely across many parts of the country throughout Sunday, with precipitation expected to become more widespread in the hills on Monday. Eastern Nepal could receive comparatively heavier rainfall.
From Tuesday, rainfall activity is expected to spread from east to west. Some areas of Sudurpaschim could receive brief spells of heavy rain, although prolonged heavy rainfall is not expected.
Rain is also likely across Gandaki, Lumbini, Karnali and Sudurpaschim provinces. Kathmandu Valley could receive significant rainfall over the next three days.
Rainfall is expected to ease after about three days, but it is unlikely to stop completely. Pokharel said precipitation could gradually decline by Ghatasthapana, followed by clearer weather.
Rainfall forecast for the coming week
Pokharel forecast average rainfall of around 50 to 60 millimetres across Nepal over the next week, based on the average projections of four weather forecasting models.
The mid hills could receive comparatively more rain, while precipitation is also expected in the Himalayan region. The Tarai is likely to receive somewhat less rainfall.
Pokharel cautioned that forecasts are model based, meaning the timing, location and actual volume of rainfall could vary.
He advised people planning treks or preparing to harvest paddy to closely follow daily weather forecasts and schedule their activities accordingly.
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