On threshold of great changes

In 2009, on my way back to Nepal from London, in a Qatar Airways flight I met Basanta Pun. He was returning home after four years of work as a lorry driver in Doha and said he was not going back to the alien land again. I was curious— did he have a bad experience in Doha; did he think he had earned enough for the rest of his life or was he earning too little that there was no real incentive to go back again? None of these turned out to be true. He had a decent income, at least by the standard of what fellow Nepalis were earning on average in Doha. “I was earning around 25,000 (Nepali rupees) per month,” he told me.

After four years of hard work Pun had managed to save over Rs 400,000. A modest saving. Yes. But that’s not an ordinary feat given that he had repaid loan his family had borrowed at an exorbitant interest rates, and regularly sent money to his parents and wife to meet mundane household expenses. Pun had left for Doha leaving behind his newly-wed wife. With his saving, he now wanted to start “something” on his own— he didn’t know what that would be but was confident that he would figure it out.

Last February, I was on my way to Japan. Onboard the Thai flight to Bangkok, seated next to me was an interesting gentleman, a middle-aged Nepali citizen doing business in Malaysia. He had come to Nepal to explore possibilities of starting business here. “There are so many private schools in Nepal and students are required to wear black leather shoes but I didn’t see a good Nepali brand shoe polish. I am thinking of bringing Malaysian technology and setting up a shoe polish manufacturing plant.”

I found this guy interesting not just for his business sense—his background fascinated me even more. He was an active and a militant cadre of UML in the early nineties. He recalled, with some remorse, how he and his friends used to ransack railings at Ratna Park whenever they had to protest against the government.

“I saw many glass-mounted high-rise buildings coming up in Kathmandu, maybe, protesting students don’t target glass-windows anymore,” he said.

That’s actually true. Mode of political protests are gradually becoming more decent as Nepali politics is slowly but steadily maturing in its democratic expressions. Even during Janaandolan II, which brought hundreds of thousands of people to the street, vandalisms by protesters were rare. The “indefinite strike” called by Maoist party in May 2010 brought thousands of their cadres to Kathmandu but there was hardly any trace of violence during the week-long strike.

Since that iconic dance by Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and actress Rekha Thapa at Bhadrakali during the Maoist sit-in, fun and frolic seems to have replaced, hopefully permanently, anger and vandalism during protests. When was the last time we saw tyre burning in Kathmandu during Nepal banda?

Some of these changes have been so gradual, so subtle that we have failed to take note of them. When the fog of cynicism against the politicians is so thick, especially in the capital, it’s hard to notice these changes.

Since that iconic dance by Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and actress Rekha Thapa at Bhadrakali during the Maoist sit-in, fun and frolic seems to have replaced, hopefully permanently, anger and vandalism during protests. When was the last time we saw tyre burning in Kathmandu during Nepal banda?

But, then, to be fair to the sceptics, as our great democratic exercise remains so imperfect and political parties and leaders remain so self-centred and divided on petty issues, it’s perhaps only reasonable to be cynical. How can democracy get institutionalized so long as public accountability and transparency remains completely missing in political discourse and practice? How can we trust our leaders when they don’t seem to understand that probity in public life and personal accountability of what they say or do is so crucial in winning public confidence? So don’t blame the sceptics entirely.

But such is the nature of democracy that political parties and elections come first and institutions are typically late comers. On top of that, the excruciating transition has complicated our institutional evolution. We are a country still struggling to write a constitution, still divided on what kind of state we want, and still confused about what common thread binds us together as Nepalis. These are truly churning times.

That said, four years after the glorious Janaandolan II and three years after the country was declared a republic, things are beginning to settle. Tacit consensus is now gradually emerging—that we will adapt a plural, democratic system; that we will take into account ethnicity, culture and language when we federalize the state but we will also factor in economic sustainability in state restructuring.

For many political observers parties may appear to be ossified in the past. That’s not true. Instead, parties are actually evolving rather fast. Take Maoist party for instance. The radicalism and zealotry that used to be so evident even during personal conversations with the Maoist leaders and cadres when they came to open politics in 2006 has mellowed to a great deal. So have their policies. Take for instance their attitude toward private education. Until recently they wanted to abolish private education— some radical pockets within the party still want to.

But in private conversations Maoists leaders admit that it’s neither possible nor desirable. They seem to have realized that a rationale and feasible option exists: Improving the quality of public education system is much easier and costs less than blanket replacement of private education with it.

There is a growing pragmatism on labor issue as well. A few months ago, three major trade unions, associated with three main parties, jointly struck a deal with the Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industry and pledged not to organize any strike in industries and businesses at least for next four years. Some trade unions associated with fringe parties did organize strikes protesting for being left out of the negotiation process and it’s likely that the pledge may not be entirely kept. But even a pledge for “no strike” for four years was unimaginable until a few years ago. When the trade unions and industrialists begin to see how they are locked in mutual interests and replace destructive blackmail with constructive bargain (talks) that heralds a sign of growing maturity in the industrial relations.

If we can consolidate these positive changes in the society and conclude the peace process and constitution writing in the stipulated time, we are poised to seize the benefits from the great economic shifts taking place in our neighbourhood— in China and India.

We are rapidly accumulating a critical mass of “active resources”—human resources— and are beginning to invest on “passive resources”—natural resources, especially hydropower.

Last 20 years of open society (thanks to advent of multiparty system in 1990), growing trans-national movement of Nepalis (about three million Nepalis work or study abroad in countries other than India) and improving quality of education (at least in private schools and colleges) has created a robust pool of human resources.

I doubt we would have had the capacity to seize the opportunity if the economic shift had taken place in our neighbourhood some 20 years ago. Then, we didn’t have the critical human resources and the confidence to act on the opportunity. Today, we do.

Like Pun, many Nepalis working or studying abroad are returning and will return in even more numbers to their homeland in the years ahead, and like the Nepali businessman in Malaysia many big and small Nepali entrepreneurs abroad will want to start business in their homeland as opportunities arise.

After years of muddle and mudslinging (remember the des bechuwa blame?) we are now beginning to do right things in harnessing the hydropower. Construction of Upper Tamakoshi (456 MW) has begun and we have reached an agreement with China to use its US$250 million credit line to develop the 60 MW Upper Trishuli. The government has also announced to set up Power Development Corporation with a paid-up capital worth 8 billion rupees to finance hydropower development. And Maoist’s opposition to foreign investments in hydropower is gradually receding.

If we stabilize our politics, if we improve industrial relations and if we resolve power shortage, there is no reason why investments will not come to Nepal that has a ready access to the vast markets of two economic powerhouses. We are truly on the threshold of great changes.

I am sure many sceptics will argue that there are many ifs and buts in my argument. Yes, there are. But let’s never forget that there is no country in history that didn’t face ifs and buts on the eve of its take off.

ameetdhakal@gmail.com