KATHMANDU, Oct 25: The government has unveiled two white papers outlining plans to strengthen Nepal’s hydrology and meteorology sectors, expand flood early-warning systems across six major river basins and reduce water levels in four high-risk glacial lakes to mitigate disaster risks.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and the Centre for Water Resources Research and Development under the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation released separate white papers on Sunday, setting out strategies for sustainable water-resource management, climate-resilient infrastructure, aviation safety and disaster-risk reduction.
The documents emphasise modern technology, open access to data and scientific research to improve forecasts, strengthen early-warning systems and protect lives and property. They also outline measures to address growing risks associated with rising temperatures in the Himalayas, including glacier melt, avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
Government targets four high-risk glacial lakes
The government has proposed the GLOF Sanjivani Project to lower water levels in four high-risk glacial lakes: Thulagi in Manang, Lower Arun in Sankhuwasabha, and Lumding Tsho and Hongu-2 in Solukhumbu.
The project will run from 2026 to 2033 with a total budget of approximately US$49.9 million. Authorities plan to apply risk-reduction measures drawing on Nepal’s previous experience lowering water levels in Tsho Rolpa in Dolakha’s Rolwaling Valley and Imja Lake in Solukhumbu.
Those interventions provide a basis for further efforts to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst floods, which can send large volumes of water and debris downstream, threatening settlements, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Climate change has increased concerns about the stability of Himalayan glaciers and glacial lakes. Rising temperatures accelerate glacier melt and can increase the volume of water stored in glacial lakes, raising the potential consequences of an outburst.
Beat the summer heat
Six river basins to receive flood early-warning systems
The Centre for Water Resources Research and Development is installing flood early-warning systems in six river basins under the Priority River Basin Flood Risk Management Project, which runs from 2022 to 2028 at a cost of US$7.54 million.
The centre will also operate flood forecasting and early-warning services around the clock from May 15 to October 16 each year, covering the main monsoon and post-monsoon period.
During the current fiscal year, the centre plans to develop new flood forecasting models for the Karnali and Narayani river basins. It will also establish a community-based flood early-warning system under the Bagmati Improvement Project at a cost of Rs 26.1 million.
These measures aim to improve the government’s ability to forecast rising river levels, issue timely warnings and help communities prepare for possible flooding. Community-based systems are particularly important in downstream settlements, where residents may have limited time to respond when rivers rise rapidly.
AI and advanced technology to improve weather forecasts
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology’s white paper prioritises artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and high-performance computing to improve the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts.
The department plans to gradually upgrade Nepal’s 503 manual weather stations to automatic weather stations. Automated monitoring could help authorities collect weather observations more consistently and improve the data available for forecasting.
The department also plans to maintain weather radars in Surkhet, Palpa and Udayapur and has proposed installing an X-band radar to improve weather monitoring in the Kathmandu Valley.
To monitor conditions in the upper atmosphere, the department plans to establish radiosonde stations in six additional provinces. These stations would provide atmospheric observations that can help meteorologists analyse developing weather systems and improve forecasts.
The white paper also proposes expanding public access to warnings through the toll-free number 1155, mobile applications, social media and audiovisual briefings. The department aims to deliver information to communities in downstream and flood-prone areas through multiple communication channels.
Early warnings to reach local communities
The department plans to strengthen its multi-hazard early-warning system by integrating weather observations, identification of vulnerable areas, impact-based forecasts, warning maps and information dissemination.
Rather than focusing solely on producing forecasts, the department intends to work with relevant government agencies and local governments to ensure that warnings reach communities at risk in time for them to take protective action.
Impact-based forecasting can help authorities communicate not only expected weather conditions but also the potential consequences for specific areas. This approach can support local preparations, including evacuation planning and measures to protect people, property and essential infrastructure.
The department’s proposed use of digital platforms and multiple communication channels also aims to make warnings more accessible to people who may not receive or understand conventional weather bulletins.
Implementation remains a major challenge
The white papers set out a broad programme to strengthen Nepal’s capacity to manage water resources, forecast hazardous weather and reduce disaster-related losses. The proposed investments cover infrastructure, technology, scientific research and the delivery of warnings to vulnerable communities.
However, the documents identify several challenges that could affect implementation, including continuity of funding, shortages of skilled technical personnel, regular maintenance of modern equipment and coordination among government agencies.
Sustaining early-warning systems requires more than installing monitoring equipment. Authorities must also maintain reliable data networks, regularly update forecasting models, communicate warnings clearly and ensure that local governments and communities can respond effectively.
The government’s ability to deliver the proposed programmes will therefore depend on consistent financing, technical capacity and coordination across agencies and levels of government.
If implemented effectively, the measures could strengthen Nepal’s preparedness for floods and other weather-related hazards, reduce risks from glacial lake outburst floods and improve the reliability of weather information used by communities, public agencies and aviation services.
