The quake in Haiti was devastating not just because it measured 7.0 on the Richter scale. The reason for such huge loss of life and property is that the quake´s epicenter was very close to the capital, Port-au-Prince. This raises the obvious question: How does Kathmandu compare with Port-au-Prince in terms of being able to dealing with a similar catastrophe? Experts say: Almost the same. [break]
"What happened in Haiti may repeat itself in Kathmandu," says Amod Mani Dixit, Executive Director of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET). "In Haiti, the airport was blocked and telephones went dead. This may happen here too."
Given the lack of preparedness on the part of the government and the people, the number of deaths and injuries in a big earthquake could be far higher than in the earthquakes of 1934 and 1988. According to a study by NSET, more than 22,000 people will die if a quake similar in magnitude to that of 1934 hits Kathmandu Valley now.
"We carried out this study almost a decade back," Dixit says. "However, the outcome of the study is relevant even now since not much has improved over the decade in terms of building up a quake-resistant community. Despite persistent efforts by different organizations to raise awareness about resisting earthquakes, the hazards of quakes have not been reduced. Instead, they have increased owing to the rapid and unplanned urbanization."
The same study suggests that more than 50 percent of bridges will collapse if an earthquake of about 7 points on the Richter scale jolts the Valley. This means rescue work will be hampered. Ambulances, fire brigades and other vehicles will fail to move. Cities in the Valley will become disconnected from one another.
Tulasi Sitaula, Joint-Secretary at the Ministry of Physical Planning and Works (MoPPW), admits that most of the bridges in the Valley are vulnerable. "It is mainly due to lack of regular repair work," he says. "Repairing bridges costs a huge amount of money. In some cases, repairing costs may be equal to that of building a new one. We think twice before repairing any bridge."
The valley has about 30 bridges. Many bridges have exceeded their lifespan. The recent trend of quarrying sand from local rivers has rendered many bridges very vulnerable. "The ground level under some bridges has gone down as much as five meters," Sitaula says. "Repairing the base of bridges is more expensive."
Aid flowing in from foreign countries may get stuck at the airport, which is likely to be cut off like the airport in Haiti. Difficulty in rescuing the injured and distributing aid to them will mean more fatalities. "The aftereffects of the earthquake will be more serious," he says.
In most parts of Kathmandu Valley, buildings stand chock-o-block on narrow alleys. Fire brigades and ambulances may be unable to negotiate these alleys in the aftermath of a big earthquake. Worse, the alleys will most probably be blocked with debris from collapsing high-rises. "Fighting the aftereffects of an earthquake with our full force is out of question," says Basudev Hengaju, one of the most experienced firefighters with Basantapur Fire Brigade (BFB).
There are just three public fire brigades in the entire Valley. The others have become defunct. "We can more or less douse fires in normal situations," says Hengaju, who was among the firefighters involved in clearing the debris after the 1988 earthquake. "But, we will simply fail to fight the aftereffects of a massive quake."
The government has promulgated a building code that makes it mandatory for citizens in all 58 municipalities and 20 fast-urbanizing Village Development Committees (VDCs) to apply earthquake resistant methods while building their houses. However, this has been limited to paper only. No one follows the code.
"The policy is nothing more than a sheet of paper. It is worthless unless it is implemented," Dixit says. Pathetically, the government also has failed to implement the code. Let alone private houses, even hospitals, schools and public offices are not quake-resistant.
Dixit says that public awareness about earthquakes has of course gone up. And some progress has been made in the past decade like issuing the building code and training of over 5,000 masons. However, this is insufficient to cope with the aftereffects of a huge quake.
With the technical assistance of NSET, about 100 schools have built quake-resistant buildings in the past decade. However, there are over 30,000 schools still vulnerable to earthquakes. "We have failed to internalize the risk of earthquakes," Dixit says. "Hence, the slow progress in building up an earthquake-resistant community." He says that a series of actions needs to be taken to make earthquakes less harmful. "We must launch a campaign," he adds. "We cannot do anything overnight."
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