The state is fast losing a historical opportunity to unite the country through judicious federalism. What the monarchy could not do for 240 years— to unite the country—political parties could do instantly if the new constitution outlined state restructuring as per the aspirations of people living in the plains, the hills and the mountains.
Unfortunately, the ruling parties want to impose constitution on their term by ignoring the interests of substantial sections of Nepalis, including Madheshis and Janajatis. The political parties in power command the support of over two-thirds members of the CA and UCPN (Maoist)-led 30-party opposition alliance is losing ground. Of late, signs of cracks have also appeared in the opposition alliance after UCPN (Maoist) prematurely decided to withdraw the three-day national strike.
Besides, the priority of the Maoists seems to have shifted as they are more interested in improving relations with ruling parties. The Supreme Court verdict of February 27 on Truth and Reconciliation Commission against blanket amnesty to serious violators of human rights from the decade-long conflict between 1996 and 2006 must have compelled the Maoists to such a paradigm shift.
However, the hard fact is that the nation is bitterly polarized today. There are two distinct groups of the people: one is the privileged section of the society and the other is comprised of deprived ones like the Madheshis and Janajatis. In fact, it is Madheshis and Janajatis who want federal states. The privileged groups who are already in the citadel of power don't want federalism as they fear they would lose power and position under the new political dispensation. Those privileged groups are overwhelmingly dominant in politics, government and virtually every walk of life. This is one of the reasons why Nepali Congress, CPN-UML or even some opposition parties like Maoists which are dominated by the privileged groups are not in favor of federalism, though they have their compulsions not to reject it outright.
If the major political parties had been honest to the federal agenda, they would not have messed up the issue so badly. Against the wish of the common mass, privileged groups have created a situation whereby it would not be possible for Madheshis and Janajatis to accept their diktat. New issues keep cropping up to spoil the environment for consensus in state restructuring.
On February 28, 2008, following the Madhesh movement, the government signed an agreement with United Democratic Madheshi Front for the creation of autonomous Madhesh state—'One Madhesh, One Pradesh'—with a right to self-determination. But during the first CA the privileged groups said Chitwan district could not be included in Madhesh, thereby creating a stumbling block in resolution of the federal issue. By the second CA elections most Madheshis were satisfied with even two states in Tarai. But Nepali Congress and CPN-UML came out with a new map in which they not only incorporated Chitwan with hill districts, but also took away the two districts of Kailali and Kanchanpur (in the far-west) and the three districts of Sunsari, Morang and Jhapa (in the east) with the hill districts. There is a tacit understanding among the ruling cliques that those five or six districts should not stay in Tarai. It would be humiliating for many Madheshis to accept such a deal. For their forefathers had for centuries protected those five or six districts from malaria, saved their green forests and helped maintain ecological balance.
In the emerging situation, different scenarios are possible. Some people want contentious issues on federalism to be put in deep freeze and go ahead with first draft of constitution incorporating the issues that have already been agreed upon. Others want referendum on the contentious districts, if the people there want to remain with the Tarai or the hills. There are others who want the five contentious districts to be enlisted as a single territory. There are still others who suggest that northern-most regions of the contentious districts be incorporated with the hills while leaving the rest of the region in the south in Tarai. But none of these propositions is enough to patch up differences on federal issue between the ruling and opposition parties.
It has become clear that the proposition to incorporate five or six Tarai districts in the hills is a ploy to derail the constitution. Why is it that those who are in the government don't want to implement past agreements on federalism? Why are they delaying the constitution making when they are in a clear majority? Why are they playing with geography and ignoring the fact that ecology of Tarai is entirely different from the hills? And so, there is no sense whatsoever in incorporating Tarai with the hills against the sentiment of the people in the region.
The more the delay in constitution-making, the more the chance for regressive and foreign forces to meddle in national politics. Such a situation would invite another conflict in the country in which the Madheshis and Janajatis have very little to lose. Therefore it is advisable not to be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Time is ripe for the civil society and intellectual class of the country to come forward and exert pressure on Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to pave the way for constitution through amicable settlement between all the political forces.
The author is Professor of Economics and Executive Director of the Centre for Economic and Technical Studies
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