In critical times of history, people look to certain personalities or political parties for leadership to bail the country out of crisis and drive it toward political stability and prosperity. In Nepal´s political transition, it was certainly the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) which could have taken that role: The party became the largest in the parliament; it had concrete agendas for social change; and on top of that, it was still untested for state offices at a time when all the other political parties had already lost their credibility among the common people. But the Maoists bungled the historic chance and their brief rule ended with ignominy. Considered brilliant strategists; considered forerunners of social change, the Maoist hyperbole faded into reality. They were soon left sloganeering in the streets, while the same old parties were back to power again.
The game for government leadership
The Maoists did all they could do – enforcing an indefinite general strike to signing a three-point package deal – to bring down the Madhav Kumar Nepal-led coalition. Finally, Nepal resigned, but the deadlock persists. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal´s strategy was clear from the very beginning: Get back to power at any cost, or else break the anti-Maoist coalition by proposing CPN-UML Chairman Jhalanath Khanal to the post of prime minister which would, to his great advantage, also prevent his party rival Dr Baburam Bhattarai from becoming the prime minister. Dahal-Khanal deal did not work out, however. Reduced to a minority in his party, Khanal can now neither lead a new coalition with Maoist backing nor make his party support Dahal. The caretaker government has already celebrated its honeymoon period, but the chances of another prime minister immediately replacing Nepal look slimmer. And the Nepali Congress (NC) stance not to pull out of the prime ministerial race has finally frozen the possibility of a new coalition in the immediate future.
The NC says the Maoists are only interested in seizing state power, rather than completing the peace process. Although the idea of Maoist capturing state power looks exaggerated, it is true that the Maoist party lost its credibility on both domestic and international fronts, which is also the main reason behind the current sorry state of affairs. Dahal made a number of promises to the opposition parties when he was in the government, but never fulfilled them. And most importantly, he did not complete the integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants when he was the prime minister, and the political parties say there is no guarantee that he would do it now if he was to lead the government again.
What the other parties now want is that the Maoists fix the number of combatants to be integrated into the state forces including the Nepal Army, and agree to a timetable for their integration and rehabilitation for the rest. But the Maoists argue that fixing the number of combatants would amount to recruitment, not integration, and it would be a humiliation for the party. But the Maoists have no other choice either. They must convince the political parties, whether through a gentleman´s agreement in the presence of credible witnesses or through some other means, that they sincerely want the completion of the integration process and agree to the universally-accepted basic principles of democracy. Although it is understandable that Maoists will face difficulty to isolate the party from their army, they must do it at one point, sooner or later. The question is only "when". But the problem is they are still not willing to take the steps due to internal party dynamics or some other reasons.
Internal party dynamics & dilemma of change
When talking to other political parties and foreigners, Maoist leaders say they are changing themselves into a civilian party, but they tell their radicalized cadres during closed door meetings that they have only made a brief tactical shift, asking the cadres to be ready for a "people´s revolt" to seize state power. Leaders frequently make such speeches to whip up the flagging confidence level of the lower rank cadres who have remained confused about the party-line.
The Maoists´ confused party-line is the direct result of the sharp ideological differences between Senior Vice-Chairman Mohan Baidya and Vice-Chairman Dr Bhattarai. Chairman Dahal prepares the party documents by fusing the two contrasting lines floated by Baidya and Bhattarai, making them look like post-structuralist texts that can be interpreted in multiple ways.
Now is the time for the Maoists to decide whether they want to get to power through ballots or seize power through forceful and conspiratorial ways, whether they want to accept the universal basic principles of democracy or go for a dictatorial system, and whether they want to first institutionalize the achievements made so far before taking any further strides, or risk everything to immediately realize the greater communist ideological goals. In this context, the forthcoming Maoist plenum slated for November will be crucial, which will deliberate the three separate documents presented by Dahal, Baidya and Bhattarai.
Maoists have long been crying foul of "conspiracies to isolate them and force them back to jungle". In fact, neither the other political parties here nor the international power centers can really afford to isolate the Maoists. But what the Maoists are lacking is a trustworthy party leadership and unambiguous party policies. As the largest political party, the future of Nepal hinges on the roles to be played by the Maoist party. It is high time the Maoists decided whether they want to institutionalize the political changes made so far and implement through peaceful means the far-reaching social changes they have long envisaged or continue to allow the country get embroiled in confusion. The people will certainly choose the former.
Writer is with Republica´s political bureau
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