It's the power, stupid!

KATHMANDU, May 24: Less than five days before the CA deadline expires on May 28, the parties know each other’s positions; they even have some idea what the other side may concede at the negotiating table. But they are yet to enter into final negotiations.

There are, however, hectic rounds of informal negotiation going on, especially between the Maoists and the Nepali Congress— the two largest parties, an agreement or lack of one between whom will decide the future course of Nepali politics.

What is NC demanding with the Maoists at these informal negotiations?[break]

The list of demands is long but two of them are key in the sense that they should be addressed before May 28: Prime Minister J N Khanal must resign and, second, the Maoists must fix an acceptable number of Maoist combatants for integration, categorize and segregate them from the rest of the combatants, and hand over all their weapons to the state.

What is the Maoists’ response to this set of demands?

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has told the NC that he is ready to fix the integration numbers and categorize and segregate the combatants but handing over weapons would be impossible “since it would be interpreted in my party as accepting defeat.”

What are the Maoists demanding with the NC?

At one of their informal negotiations, Maoist Chairman Dahal was blunt with the NC leaders: “What are the things I need to do for the NC to accept our party’s leadership in the government?”

At one of their informal negotiations, Maoist Chairman Dahal was blunt with the NC leaders: “What are the things that I need to do for the NC to accept our party’s leadership in the government?”

The NC is not opposed to Dahal’s leadership provided there is agreement on the peace process. “Since there is no other way to dislodge Prime Minister Jhalanath Khanal from power we must accept Dahal’s leadership if he agrees to our conditions,” said an NC leader.

The NC, however, has its own bargain to strike regarding government leadership. It is demanding that Dahal agree to hand over power to the NC before the next general election. “The Maoist chairman didn’t specifically say that he is ready to do so but said he is open to it and that it can be discussed and decided later on.”

So, an agreement on government leadership will be the key to sealing a comprehensive deal.

But this is again contingent on progress in the peace process.

The NC is not willing to strike a deal on power sharing unless there is agreement on the peace process and, at the same time, the Maoist chairman is less inclined to agree on the specifics of the peace process unless he is reliably assured that he will get to lead the government.

This means the NC and the Maoists will have to negotiate the peace process and government leadership in tandem.

When it comes to the nitty-gritty of the peace process, especially the management of Maoist combatants, things still look dicey.

The NC has urged Chairman Dahal to accept the Nepal Army’s proposal in its entirety but the latter has argued that while the idea of forming a National Development and Security Directorate as proposed by the army is acceptable to his party the details will have to be negotiated.

Head of the Maoist party’s military division and standing committee member Barsa Man Pun has already demanded that the Directorate should have a military mandate. “It should be given a military mandate, including border security,” said Pun. This is, however, not what the Nepal Army plans. It wants to develop the Directorate as its wing specializing in construction and development work, rescue and relief operations and forest conservation.

Beside this, there are issues of integration numbers, leadership of the Directorate, harmonization of Maoist combatant rankings during integration, setting of standard norms, and a decision on a civilian package to be given to combatants opting for voluntarily retirement, among other things.

The NC and Maoists are not doing much negotiating on these complicated issues; instead, they seem to be engaged in brinkmanship in the hope that the other side will blink and concede ground.

“This brinkmanship is unlikely for a day or two to make way for a constructive dialogue but eventually we will have to negotiate in earnest,” said the NC leader.

Having discussed power sharing during their last meeting, Maoist Chairman Dahal suggested that both sides do their homework and meet again informally. “With the big prize [premiership] in his sights, we are confident Dahal will come to an agreement before May 28,” the NC leader said.