UP is important for two reasons. With a population of over 200 million, it is India´s most populous state and the second largest state-economy contributing 8.34 percent to India´s total GDP in the fiscal year 2010. If UP was a country in its own right, its 190 million inhabitants would make it the sixth largest in the world. Second, it is important for Indian democracy due to its caste-based politics. The test this time around will be whether the UP voters will continue to support caste-based politics or opt for more matured development goals.
In 2007, Mayawati, a Dalit from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), was elected the Chief Minister of UP for the fourth time. Her victory was the outcome of her efforts to expand her political base beyond Dalits, embracing in particular the Brahmins of UP. She together with her political mentor, Kanshi Ram, were quick to see that the interests of the average Dalit (most of whom are landless agricultural laborers) was more in conflict with the middle castes such as the Yadavs, who owned most of the agricultural land in UP, than with the predominantly city-dwelling upper castes. Her success in welding the Dalits and the upper castes has led to her being projected as a potential prime-ministerial candidate of India.
The question is whether the caste ridden policy will determine the outcome of the March-April elections or are people also looking for development agenda in UP.
As per the 2001 census of India, about 80 percent of UP population is Hindu, while Muslims make up around 18 percent. Sikhs, Buddhists, Christians and Jains make up the rest. The peripheral regions of UP are home to a number of tribal communities. Five of these tribal communities—Tharus, Boksas, Bhotia, Jaunswaris and Rajis—have been recognized by the Indian Government as disadvantaged scheduled tribes.
In the 2007 polls, Mayawati´s BSP was able to garner an absolute majority, against all expectations. That was the first time since 1991 majority of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that a single party has gained absolute majority in the state. Before that, the state had been ruled by various coalitions among the Samajwadi Party (SP), BJP and the BSP for two decades.
Mayawati’s victory was result of the amalgamation of Brahmin votes into this Dalit dominated party, as opposed to the decades-old trend of deep-rooted electoral divisions in the state between Dalits, Upper Castes, Muslims and different OBC (backwards) groups, which tend to vote in blocks.
In 1995, Mayawati created history by becoming Indian’s first Dalit woman chief minister. And since, she has won every election, primarily on a single plank—law and order. “Mayawati was perceived as ruthless and her slogan of improving law and order situation in UP caught the popular imagination,” says Satish Mishra, a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation and a political analyst.
But the law and order has not improved in UP. According to experts, Mayawati, over the years, has lost some credibility and favoritism has been ripe in UP. She not only sacked seven ministers during her tenure but also included criminal elements within her party. Ad hoc postings and transfers of officials have been rampant. Political analysts have widely criticized the current practice of MLAs deciding on the police postings and the blatant political interference in recruitments.
“There is now disillusionment among the public. Mayawati is not in a comfortable position,” Mishra argues.
However, no real alternative has emerged in UP. Although the Congress has emerged as BSP’s main challenger, the recent corruption scams at the centre makes their success less likely. The BSP, SP, Congress, BJP, Rastriya Lokdal of Ajit Singh are main players in UP. But, like Mishra says, although Mayawati’s majority is likely to be reduced, BSP might yet emerge as the single largest party.
The Muslim votes in UP will be crucial but it is too early to predict who this group will vote for. The Muslims, who got disillusioned with the Congress after the Babri Masjid incident, went on to form the Peace Party in UP, but that is no guarantee that the Muslims will vote in block.
Indian voters are considered more matured now. The question is whether the caste ridden policy will determine the outcome of the March-April results or are people also looking for development agenda in UP.
UP shares 700 km-long international border with Nepal. The entire eastern UP is under siege because of gang and contract wars. Reports of criminals from both sides of the border making use of the open space are widely reported in the media. Election time will be a ripe time for criminals from UP to cross over into Nepali territory. The gangs infamous for their murders, kidnappings, extortion and other heinous crimes are now also benefitting from government contracts, now lucrative business in UP. Gorakhpur near the Sunali border point has always been a hotbed of crimes.
Corruption is another factor. Describing UP as the "Problem Pradesh", Nationalist Congress Party general secretary DP Tripathi, who hails from UP, has criticized the corruption in the state. He said at a program in Delhi recently that the high level of corruption at all levels in UP is “badly affecting the development of the state.”
"In Uttar Pradesh, there are various types of corruption—like efficient corruption, inefficient corruption, decentralized corruption," he said, pushing the state into a "terrific situation".
Ajai Raj Sharma, former Delhi police commissioner and former director general of the Border Security Force, has warned that a revolt of PAC (Provincial Armed Constabulary) men, as in 1973, looms large if the reports of indiscipline among them are correct. He said the criminal justice system has collapsed in the State with the breakdown of police, judicial and jail systems. To quote Sharma: "A gangster in UP jail can plot anything and get any one killed, blaming political interference and the failure of IPS leadership for this.”
The author is Republica correspondent based in New Delhi
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