Kathmandu, Aug 17: Meteorologists have warned that El Niño’s growing influence could intensify weather extremes as Nepal’s monsoon enters its final stretch.
Despite the country receiving about 55 percent of its annual average rainfall so far—824 millimeters against the long-term mean of 1,470 millimeters—experts caution that uneven distribution and climate anomalies pose serious risks.
Heavy downpours in scattered mid-hill areas have already triggered landslides and other disasters, while Madhes Province remains significantly drier than normal.
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Dharmaraj Upreti, executive chief of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, said Madhes may still face heavy rains in the coming weeks.
“In the three days starting Monday, western Nepal is likely to see heavy rainfall, and for the first time this season, Madhes is expected to receive significant downpours,” he noted.
Nepal’s monsoon typically runs from June to early October, leaving roughly six weeks of the season remaining. Upreti cautioned that El Niño’s impact—linked to changes in sea surface temperatures—could amplify late-season rainfall events. “When moisture-laden air masses interact with local conditions under El Niño, the effects can be more devastating,” he explained.
Experts stress that while overall rainfall totals appear adequate, the irregular distribution combined with El Niño’s influence heightens risks of both drought and disaster in the final phase of the monsoon.
