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Experts call for new Himalayan Risk Strategy after Bhotekoshi floods

The disaster in Rasuwa has once again exposed the vulnerability of Himalayan communities to climate-driven hazards and highlighted gaps in monitoring and early warning systems.
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By SHREE RAM SUBEDI

KATHMANDU, Aug 28: As Nepal grapples with the aftermath of the devastating Bhotekoshi floods, experts are calling for stronger disaster preparedness, real-time cross-border information sharing and risk-sensitive infrastructure planning to reduce future losses.



The disaster in Rasuwa has once again exposed the vulnerability of Himalayan communities to climate-driven hazards and highlighted gaps in monitoring and early warning systems.


Environmentalist Arjun Dhakal described the flood as a larger repeat of the 2025 Rasuwa disaster.


“Rasuwa Flood-2 happened again. Only bigger. Much bigger,” he said.


A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Tibet in July 2025 killed at least nine people, left 18 missing and caused losses exceeding Rs 5 billion. Following that disaster, Nepal pledged to strengthen early warning systems, climate adaptation measures and cross-border cooperation.


However, on August 26, 2026, a massive surge of water entered Nepal through the Bhotekoshi River from the Tibetan side, sweeping away settlements, roads, markets and hydropower infrastructure.


Experts say the disaster underscores the need to move beyond traditional disaster response. Rising temperatures are accelerating glacier melt and increasing the risks of extreme rainfall, landslides, ice avalanches and sudden river blockages.


Disaster management expert Basanta Adhikari stressed the importance of improving scientific understanding of Himalayan risks.


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“Ground-level information on glacier melt, glacial lake conditions, landslide risks and extreme rainfall impacts must be available,” he said.


He called for continuous monitoring through technologies such as cameras, seismic sensors and other observation systems capable of detecting environmental changes and issuing early warnings.


“Installing such systems across the entire Himalayas is impossible, but high-risk areas must be identified and monitored,” he added.


Experts also emphasized the need for stronger cooperation with neighboring countries, particularly China, since many Himalayan rivers cross national boundaries.


They noted that Nepal lacks a reliable mechanism to receive timely information on upstream hazards in Tibet, including ice avalanches, glacial lake changes and river blockages.


Climate experts have long advocated a permanent Nepal-China information-sharing mechanism involving meteorological, hydrological and geological agencies.


“The issue is not whether cooperation is possible. It is about making it happen immediately because the benefits are enormous,” Adhikari said.


Such cooperation could include shared hydrometeorological data, satellite monitoring, joint risk assessments and coordinated early warning systems. Experts say combining China’s high-altitude monitoring capacity with Nepal’s field observations and downstream monitoring in India and Bangladesh could significantly strengthen regional disaster preparedness.


Santosh Nepal, a researcher at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), said the disaster highlights the need to reassess Himalayan risks in light of climate change.


“Rainfall-based forecasting alone is no longer sufficient. Climate change is creating conditions beyond what historical records show,” he said.


He urged authorities to incorporate multiple hazards into future risk assessments, including extreme rainfall, landslides, rock and ice avalanches, glacier-related disasters, debris flows and sudden river blockages.


“Mountain disasters rarely occur in isolation. A small event in the high mountains can quickly trigger severe downstream impacts,” he said.


Experts also called for a shift from reactive disaster response to preventive risk management. Although local governments have prepared disaster risk plans, implementation remains weak.


“Risk-based land-use planning must be implemented, not kept only on paper,” Adhikari said.


They further warned that roads, bridges, hydropower projects and settlements in mountain regions are still being designed largely on the basis of historical climate patterns.


“Future infrastructure cannot be designed only around conventional flood estimates. It must account for changing hazards and cascading disasters,” Santosh Nepal said.


Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song has also stressed the importance of closer cooperation between the two countries. In a recent interview with Nepal Television, he said Nepal and China could strengthen information sharing, improve early warning systems, enhance emergency rescue coordination and expand technical cooperation.


Experts say Nepal's challenge is not simply preparing for the next disaster but building a system capable of responding to a rapidly changing Himalayan risk landscape.


“Climate change mitigation is beyond Nepal’s immediate control. But preparedness, monitoring and adaptation are areas where Nepal can act now,” Adhikari said.


With glaciers retreating and extreme weather events becoming more frequent, experts warn that the key question is no longer whether another disaster will occur, but whether Nepal will be better prepared when it does.

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