Dahal's vacillation

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has once again vacillated in his commitment to peace and constitution, raising serious doubts about the successful conclusion of the peace process and promulgation of a new constitution. Instead of pushing for the endorsement of his peace and constitution proposal at the ongoing Central Committee meeting, Dahal opted to withhold it. His proposal could have easily been passed through that body, where he, along with Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, have a clear majority. But he didn’t pursue that course for reasons still unclear though he claims that he took the decision to save the party from a vertical split. He may have saved the party, at least for now, but the larger question we are interested in-- and so is the public-- is whether he is ready to save the peace process and conclude the constitution writing in time.



His joining hands with the radical faction in the party, which opposes the current political process and instead advocates an urban rebellion to capture the state, will further complicate an already stalled peace and constitution process. The Baidya group’s stances on the peace process and constitution writing are so radical that there is hardly any room for negotiations and compromise with other parties. There are also increasing voices within the Maoist party, including the Dahal faction, for renegotiating the terms of the seven-point agreement signed among the four major forces of Nepali politics—UCPN(Maoist), NC, UML and UDMF. As the NC, UML and fringe parties in the Constituent Assembly have taken the common stance that the seven-point agreement should be implemented in letter and spirit, a showdown between the Maoists and other parties clearly looms.



Why is Dahal vacillating at this critical juncture when we are already overshooting the deadline for the conclusion of the peace process and failing to keep up with the constitution-writing calendar even if this is the very last extension of the CA term? There are two theories: First, by temporarily stalling the peace process and negotiations on constitution writing, Dahal aims to turn up the heat on the NC and UML and force them to compromise. Last week he told senior NC leaders that his party will not vacate the cantonments unless it accepts his party’s demand for a popularly-elected presidential system in the new constitution.



The second theory is that by creating a deadlock he is trying to create a situation where all the political actors will be ready to re-negotiate everything, including the government leadership. Since the Baidya faction has long been demanding the removal of Prime Minister Bhattarai, the surprise rapprochement between Baidya and Dahal lends credence to this theory. Whatever the reason behind the current vacillation, the main loser in all this will be none other than Dahal himself since it will further erode his credibility as a leader to be trusted.

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