Madan Bhandari – a visionary and charismatic leader of the party – envisaged that eventually UML has to do away with communism. But he also knew that the change posed risk and could not be done quickly. He was aware of the strong forces that pressurized the party to remain communist. They were the indoctrinated cadres, the most-valuable asset of a cadre-based party. However, on the other hand, there were forces and factors that constantly pushed it to change into a democratic party.
They were the collapse of global communism since the early 1990s, geo-politics, shifting power balance within the country and the democratic set-up of the country. So, he discovered a new political program to begin the departure from classical communist practice. He named it People’s Mufti-party Democracy (PMD). His target was the transformation of UML into a social democrat party via PMD. However, his premature death badly hindered the whole journey. Now PMD is reduced to a tool his successors use to fight with each other.
UML has already split once before reuniting. Now, over a decade after the split, it is almost sure to split again—it’s just a question of when. When it split 11 years ago, the breakaway group claimed that the party leadership had sold out to India by signing the Mahakali treaty with that country. They cited the ‘anti-national’ treaty as the main reason for the split.
This time the main reason will be its relationship with UCPN (Maoists). However, Mahakali or Maoists, both are superficial reasons. The real reason behind the party split – past or probable – was/will be the inherent ideological contradiction. It is the conflict between two opposite forces, one representing the more liberal path and the other symbolizing orthodox communism.
Madhav Kumar Nepal and KP Oli belong to the former school, Jhala Nath Khanal and Bam Dev Gautam to the latter. Although Khanal is not a hardliner like Gautam, circumstances have made him so. He won the election of party chairman a couple of months back, largely on the strength of tacit support from the Maoists. Now he is bound to repay the obligation. Certainly the Maoists want the repayment when they need it most.
The proposed sacking of Chief of Army Staff Rookmangud Katawal is a matter of life and death for Maoists and they want Khanal to repay their kindness by lending his support on it. So, even if by any miracle the party does not split with or without the army chief being sacked, it will be almost impossible for Gautam to remain in the UML respectfully. He will have no option other than joining UCPN (Maoists). But things are difficult for Khanal. His present position, personality and changed outlook all act as deterrent to join or to find an acceptable place there. This is the reason he is taking a borderline approach and trying to show that he is not as deeply entrenched on the other side of the coalition as his fellow comrade Gautam is.
With the emergence of the Maoists as the No. 1 political and communist force following the peace process, UML has been facing the danger of annihilation. Using both carrot and stick, the Maoists have been constantly wooing and stealing UML cadres to their fold. Barring educated circles like students and other professional groups, UML has lost its traditional support comprising of the poor, weaker and marginalized communities to Maoists during the last few years. This development is hardly a healthy sign for a communist party.
Even a split will not bring an end to the sorrow of UML; bad days will continue. The war for identity and for existence will continue till either of them ceases to vanish from the scene. The ongoing war between the two parties and their youth wings is the war for domination in the communist world of our country. Obviously, no two communist parties can become No. 1. In the fight to achieve or retain the patent right of “mainstream communists”, the UML is no match to the Maoists. Therefore, in the long term, UML has only one choice—either to merge with the UCPN (Maoists) or officially change into a social democrat party.
In case UML decides to transform itself into a democratic party, it can become an alternative force to Nepali Congress as the latter has been getting weaker by the day. However, there are advantages and disadvantages in both options. The UML should be prepared to lose something to gain something else. It cannot fool all the people all the time and enjoy the benefits of both. Time has come for it to choose one clear path whether on national issues or on its own ideological/organizational direction. Playing the game of ambiguity and contradictions won’t work any longer.
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