The Maoist agitation, the hand-wringing and obstruction of parliament, has been entirely focused on the desperate need to get back to government, nay, to lead it. What has everyone stumped is how to make this happen, for certainly a consensus all-party national government would provide the atmospherics necessary for political stability and constitution-writing.
Will the other parties succumb to Maoist brinkmanship even with the latter unable to put together the support, or would the Maoists agree to join government as a junior partner? The remaining alternative is for the ex-rebels to abandon plans to enter Singha Durbar and concentrate on the drafting of the constitution, a function quite independent of the stalled parliament. But no, the party which resigned from leading the last government wants to head it again, and therefore we have a knot.
The Fall
To understand the Maoists’ sense of urgency, it is important to revert to what transpired in the spring. Having blocked the possibility of a consensus government after the elections, the Maoists were holding every plum ministerial position (head of government, finance, information, peace and reconstruction, law, you name it) plus they had an amenable minister from the CPN (UML) at home affairs.
Had they not blundered, it is quite likely that the party would have consolidated its position over the monsoon period, establishing conditions for long innings in power. Instead, they are left flailing, seeking to get back to the cabinet’s head table through sheer intimidation. What explains the adventurism which ultimately led to the resignation of Pushpa Kamal Dahal as prime minister in early May? Why was there the need to engineer the ouster of the then army chief Rookmangud Katawal?
As best as one can make out, the Maoist leaders were cornered by their own internal propaganda, the promise of full and unit-wise integration of their combatants into the national army (for reference, the Shaktikhor videotape). It was important to get the apparently recalcitrant COAS out of the way, to see if the more amenable second-in-command could pull it off. But the plan was botched by the unconstitutional attempt to directly oust Gen Katawal, without consensus in the cabinet or in the larger political arena as required. Had the prime minister submitted a formal notification to (Supreme Commander) President Ram Baran Yadav to relieve the COAS, the constitutional head of state would have been duty bound to accept it following an effort at review.
The Maoist calculation was perhaps that by taking the Katawal issue to a head, they would be able to fracture the CPN (UML), bringing the erstwhile ‘Ma-Le’ comrades over to its side, and that the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum would stand firm. Having resigned from government, the idea would have been to return to power even more secure than earlier. But the plan went awry. The MPRF broke up amidst Upendra Yadav’s relentless international junketeering, while the UML failed to splinter. The Maoists had walked into political quicksand and the other political parties galvanized in alarm to put up the present-day coalition government.
Outside of government and wanting in, as in any other country with democratic parliamentary procedures, it is the obligation of the party that wants to rule to pull together the required backing. The Maoists’ nine months in power had rattled the other political players to such an extent that it was natural for them not to take to the suggestion. Unable to arrange the mathematics, the Maoists decided to deploy coercion, with ‘civilian supremacy’ as a battering ram to challenge the May 4 move by President Yadav.
Girija Downturn
It is not as if the other parties are all washed in milk and honey. Having managed to prevent Maoist designs, the senior most leaders in the UML and Congress seem not to have realized the opportunity they have been handed to usher good governance, rule of law, reconstruction, rehabilitation and a return to full-fledged democracy. In the UML, Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal remains petulant for having been passed over for prime minister. In Baluwatar, Madhav Kumar Nepal seems to thrive on a technocratic piecemeal approach, unable to corral the individual ministers into a grand vision that energizes the population.
But it is Girija Prasad Koirala more than the others who has broken the public trust, dropping all other agenda to foist his daughter on his reluctant party. Familial transfer of power is nothing new in politics here or elsewhere but the tragedy is that we have Koirala sacrificing his credibility and six-decade legacy on the altar of a daughter who seems quite incapable of bearing the load.
Engaged thus in an existential battle of his own making, Koirala’s influence is tragically on the wane. This is unfortunate because his political clout and international stature have been a driver of the peace process and would have been a critical factor in forcing the Maoist party to demobilize and democratize. The Maoists, who have lately pandered to Koirala’s ego even while regarding him as their principal enemy, will be pleased by the weakening of Koirala and the disarray in the Congress party.
Presidential Action
While the other political parties have not exhibited the level of responsibility expected of them in the coalition, leaving the government tragically directionless, it is the Maoist action and attitude that are serving as a millstone on society. The corner-stone of the five month agitation for a return to government has been the vehement platform of ‘civilian supremacy’ and there are those in the civil society frontline who do not find it contradictory to hear this from a party with its own fighting force.
The Maoist suggestion is that President Yadav acted outside the constitution on the night of May 4 by reinstating the sacked Gen Katawal. They would like to introduce a stricture motion in parliament against the president, a populist notion that sounds good to the ear but which the forces in their opposition have every right to reject by parliamentary practice.
It is clear that the Maoist leaders themselves were attempting to shake up the army’s chain of command as a means of exercising more control over both state and society. At that point, Shital Niwas was under intense pressure to go for president’s rule but instead President Yadav took parliamentary recourse by asking the parties in the Constituent Assembly to work to form the new government.
The Maoists clearly do not mind if their months-long challenge leads to public frustration and gives rise to a right-wing reaction. Such an evolution would be supported by the national elites and, sooner or later, by the international community. But the fact is that the cabinet of Madhav Kumar Nepal, with all its weaknesses, represents a legitimate democratic formation born of the Constituent Assembly.
Even though having the Maoists in government is a good idea, given their evident unwillingness to come in behind someone else, and the unwillingness of the other players to let them take the lead, there is no democratic option to supporting the continuation of Madhav Kumar Nepal’s government. One can only hope that the prime minister manages to gain traction in the days ahead and the people can begin to feel the presence of governmental authority.
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