Leuchtag had actually been hired by Surajit Singh Majithia, Singh's predecessor as Indian envoy to Nepal, not to tend to the queen, but actually to act as a secret intermediary between King Tribhuvan (whose activities were closely monitored by the Rana rulers) and the Indian Embassy. Even after Leuchtag's departure from Kathmandu Tribhuvan was in regular contact with Nehru (via Singh). In the dying days of 1950 he had been looking for a firm assurance that India would support any activity he undertook—however drastic—for the restoration of democracy in Nepal. This assurance had finally arrived on that crisp October day in the form of the "Doctor's flower." Tribhuvan would soon put Nehru's commitment of full support to test.On November 7th, 1950 the king personally drove his sedan into the Indian Embassy at Lainchaur and sought refuge in India against the tyrannical Rana regime. Ambassador Singh then promptly arranged to have Tribhuvan fly out to New Delhi on November 10th. The goal was to bring the king face to face with the Nepali Congress leaders who had been plotting to overthrow the Rana regime from their Indian hideouts. Singh later became Tribhuvan's close confidante and would use his royal connections to boss around government ministers—and famously invite himself to cabinet meetings—during his three years as the Indian ambassador in Kathmandu.
Old seed
It was during this time of Prime Minister Nehru that India first characterized Nepal as falling under its "sphere of influence" which meant that any third-party involvement in Nepal, particularly China's, would not be tolerated. This cold war Nehruvian mindset still pervades the Indian establishment.
Nepal-India relations are at an all-time low after the latest Indian economic blockade, India's third on Nepal since 1969. In its wake, there have been calls, including from this commentator, to diversify Nepal's trade away from India. I for one believe this should be done not out of revenge against India, but as a matter of Nepali national interest: no sovereign country should completely rely on another country, as Nepal does on India.
Towards this goal, Nepal should in the days ahead look to expand its trade links with China, as well as with other important global economies like the US, the EU member states and Brazil. Nepal's recent agreement with Petro China for import of a third of its oil need is thus well placed—it's in Nepal's interest to diversify the source of strategically important commodities like oil. Now the nine roads to Tibet need to be urgently upgraded and made operational to boost bilateral trade. But all this done, can China substitute India in Nepal, as some have been arguing of late?
No. I believe the obituary of Indian influence in Nepal is greatly exaggerated. It's hard to go against geopolitics. A cursory look at the map of the region should suffice to grasp Nepal's limitations. All of Nepali territories fall within the Indian landmass, with only its northern border abutting China's Tibet. Given this unchangeable reality, India will continue to be the paramount power in Nepal.
Chinese officials, both in Kathmandu and Beijing, understand this better than anyone else. They have been consistently telling Nepali leaders that Nepal should always try to have the best of relations with India. Even after the latest blockade, the message from Beijing has barely changed. Yes, China is willing to help a small country in the neighborhood in its hour of need. It might also be willing to expand trade links with Nepal, in line with its policy of improving relations with all SAARC states, partly to counter India. But China won't go beyond that, not at the cost of alienating India with which it enjoys a US $50 billion annual trade surplus, not over small fries like Nepal.
New flower
China also understands that in the long run economy always triumphs. Importing petrol through the mountain terrains of Tibet will cost us at least 40-50 rupees more than importing it via the flat, easily-accessible parts of India; the same with other goods. When the nationalist fervor in Nepal dies down, profit-minded businessmen will once again be queuing up to import from India. Makes sense, too. The open border with India brings many challenges for Nepal, but the third largest economy in the world (in PPP) also represents a treasure-trove of opportunities, right at our doorstep. Many have already benefitted from it. Already, 5-6 million Nepalis live and work in India.
Nor can the Chinese match the warm people-to-people ties between Nepal and India, or India's soft power, epitomized by the popularity in Nepal of Bollywood and the fiercely independent Indian media.
So it makes sense for Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to first visit India instead of China. True, he could score some brownie points among ultra-nationalists if he goes go Beijing first. But that will needlessly add to India's doubts over "pro-China" Oli government. Moreover, when Prime Minister Oli is in Beijing he will once again be reminded that China can, at best, only play a secondary role in Nepal and in the long run Nepal has to have good relations with India.
PM Oli should visit India first and try to take the Indian leadership into confidence that Nepal's recent efforts at expansion of trade links with China and other countries are not against Indian interests; they rather represent natural yearning of any sovereign country in this globalizing world. That proposals like the one concerning the extension of the Lhasa-Shigatse rail to Kathmandu (and beyond) is part of the same project of greater regional connectivity that is making India build a bridge over the Palk Strait to Sri Lanka. While he is at it the prime minster should also gently nudge the Indian leadership to ditch its cold-war with-us-or-against-us mentality.
India, for its part, seems to have of late realized the limits of its hardball diplomacy. Now it must make a firm commitment not to try to micromanage events in Nepal in the future.
biswasbaral@gmail.com
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