US polls suggest dead heat

Published On: November 4, 2016 01:42 AM NPT By: Nabin Khatiwada

BOSTON, Nov 3: Republican candidate Donald Trump has made a leap in election polls and surveys and with five days remaining for the election, polls are showing the gap between Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton and Trump is narrowing down.

Media reporting in the US regarding the election are more focused on different polls and surveys and an average of the most state and national polls show that Clinton has a 1.7-point lead over Trump. 

Following the announcement by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director James Comey that the bureau is looking into more emails that could be related to Clinton's private email use while she was secretary of state, Republican candidate Trump has made progress in the polls.

Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll on Tuesday showed that Trump took a point lead in their national poll. The same poll on Thursday has shown that Hillary 2 points ahead of Trump.

The latest New York Times/CBS News Poll also showed that the margin between the candidates is narrow with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Clinton and 42 percent supporting Trump. Three other polls published on Thursday showed the candidates are tied.

Spencer Kimball, a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, said that Trump has made significant progress in the national polls but more than the national polls, the polls in the battleground states could tell more about who could win the election.

"National polls often tell us about popular votes but presidential election is all about Electoral College," said Spencer. He said that Donald Trump is still behind the magical number of 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. 

Likewise, CNN on Thursday morning reported that Trump has a chance of winning the election only if he wins all the battleground states and turn a democratic-leaning state in his favor.

Following such analysis, the elections in states like New Hampshire, Nevada and North Carolina would be crucial for both the candidates.

"Much of the media coverage of the US presidential election relies on polls and looks at social media to gauge the opinion of the Republic. But polls can be wrong, and the social media may not reflect the views of the majority," said Doug Struck, who reported for more than 30 years at different newspapers including Washington Post.

Likewise, Kevin Bowe, the executive producer of a video production company called Story-Crafters, also argues that media focusing only on polls and candidates made the election just like a horse race.

Despite having different arguments, everybody knows that polls and surveys are significant things for US election. 

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