Not only have they failed the deadline but the major parties are still sticking to their guns and are nowhere close to agreeing on a future political course. Amidst such uncertainty looms the question, what next? [break]
Under normal parliamentary practice, the president would have asked the parties to come to him with proof of a majority to stake a claim to form the next government. But that´s not the course prescribed by our Interim Constitution.
Article 38 (1) of the Interim Constitution says, “The Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister shall be constituted by political consensus.”
And Article 38 (2) says, “If the consensus cannot be reached pursuant to Clause 1 [of Article 38] the Prime Minister shall be elected by a majority of the current members of the total number of the legislature-parliament.”
Sources at the president´s office said unless the parties come and make a formal request for an extension of the deadline to explore the possibility of a consensus government the president will have to, according to the constitution, send a letter to parliament by Sunday, asking it to elect a majority government.
But the Maoists have a strategy of blocking parliamentary procedures "as long as it takes" to force a review of the President´s decision to stay the army chief´s sacking. So it´s practically impossible to hold an election in parliament unless the Maoists relent.
The challenge for the parties that want to form an alternative government is twofold: First, they will have to reach a formal agreement among themselves showing that they have a majority in parliament, and second, they have to be ready to confront the Maoists in parliament and on the streets for a long time to come.
A senior NC leader, who is negotiating with the parties and also maintains a line of communication with the Maoists, said he doesn´t see a problem in garnering a majority for an alternative government to be led by the CPN-UML. “The real challenge is when and how to take on the Maoists if they continue along the confrontational path.”
If parliament fails to hold an election due to Maoist disruption, the president will again be in the stoplight. What will he do then?
The president still favors a national government and wouldn´t mind even if it´s again under Maoist leadership. According to a source at the president´s office, President Ram Baran Yadav actually told Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, when the latter came to submit his resignation, not to deviate from the path of consensus and wished him success in leading the next consensus government.
But the president is clear that the nation cannot remain for long under a caretaker government, said the source. “If the Maoists choose confrontation in parliament and the other parties come to the president with clear proof of a majority, he may eventually nominate a prime minister even without an election in parliament,” said the source.
But that would be a recipe for long-term uncertainty, even outright violence - and the parties are cautious not to tread along that path.
“We will not rush to the president with proof of a majority if parliament remains disrupted. What we will do instead is take signatures from the parliamentarians and show them to the people and the international community so that the Maoists will be pushed into an awkward position,” said one NC leader.
The NC strategy- not agreed to by all its lawmakers though- is to let the Maoists disrupt the house, if they choose to do so, for a week or two before the parties approach the president to take a political step, as he did in staying the army chief´s sacking.
In the meantime, the option for a national government under Maoist leadership is not over yet, acknowledges the NC leader. “Maoist leaders, during private conversations, agree to the idea of a national government but want the caretaker government to continue for the next two months to let things cool off, which is not acceptable to us,” said the NC leader.
Amidst this chaos all the parties seem to be in a mood to await a Supreme Court decision on the president´s intervention, which is likely to come by next week. The verdict, whatever that would be, will come as a face-saver for all the parties.
If the court approves the president´s intervention, the Maoists may enter into negotiations with the other parties to form a national government, giving up their demand for reversal of the president´s decision.
ameet@myrepublica.com
yuvraj@myrepublica.com
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