It is not clear whether the opening of border points with India represents lifting of the now over two-week-long economic blockade. Or whether supplies have been allowed into Nepal with the upcoming festive season in mind, and the blockade will later resume. With the border declared open right on the eve of Dashain, the biggest festival in Nepal, the timing could not have been a coincidence. Clearly India was worried that blocking vital supplies during this season of festivities—Dashain, Tihar and Chhath in quick succession—would be a PR disaster for it, and even the limited support for its recent muscular diplomacy in Nepal could evaporate. The Indian political establishment, it seems, is not impervious to reason. Even if the lifting of the blockade is temporary, it is nonetheless a nice gesture on the part of Modi government. It shows that the South Block mandarins, at the least, respect the cultural sensitivities of Nepalis. Our hope is that it represents a permanent shift in India's Nepal policy. For the senseless economic blockade has already raised anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal to dangerous levels. It would be suicidal for India to push Nepal any further, into China's open arms.Following the Indian move, the Madhesh-based parties have been vague. They will now 'reconsider' their agitation in light of the upcoming festivities. In reality, they are struggling for a coherent response. But India's action in Nepal should be the least of their worries. First they need to explain their own confusing conduct. After repudiating the constitutional process—which they said was being dictated by Big Three at the barrel of the gun—they on Sunday entered the parliament and took part in the process of electing the new prime minster. This was strange. For the new prime minister was being chosen by stepping on the same constitution that the Madheshi parties had disavowed. Or perhaps it was not so strange. Perhaps Madheshi lawmakers decided to enter the parliament for the same reason that no lawmaker dared cross the CA floor this time. They were afraid the millions of rupees they had all colluded to allocating themselves by railroading due process in the legislative-parliament could, with one wrong move, slip out of their hands.
In this they were no different to lawmakers from Nepali Congress, CPN-UML or UCPN (Maoist). It's pure self-interest. Of course, there were many other factors contributing to greater unity in the CA in favor of timely constitution. Perhaps the Madheshi parties, when they entered the parliament to elect a new prime minister on Sunday, also wanted to give a message that they are ready to come on the same constitutional platform if the big parties make the right noise. Greater clarity and consistency from our political actors would help everyone. But whatever the case, we would like to urge the Madheshi and Tharu outfits to gauge public sentiment this festive season—as India apparently has—and desist from any more disruptive activities. Nepalis have suffered so much in the recent times, not the least from the lingering aftereffects of the Great Earthquake. They deserve a break.
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