Between 1950s and 2006, the Nepali Congress got three chances to live up to its commitments of transforming polity and society of the country. The first one in the 1950s fell to the machinations of monarchy. The party and its cadres then had to spend three decades in the wilderness trying desperately to save themselves from the ire of the Indian establishment on the one hand and intrigues of the royal-military establishment on the other.
Conservative elements strategically planted within the party and leftist militants mounting attacks from outside gave the NC leadership little opportunity in the 1990s to correct its rightward drift. Mandates for socialistic programs were repeatedly sacrificed at the altar of Goddess Greed of the newfound faith called free-market fundamentalism. [break]
Republica
By the late-2002, the NC had become a spent force desperately clinging to its image of being the default party of self-declared democrats.
It is not known whether it was the Chinese or the Americans that briefed Girija Prasad Koirala about the deadly combination of monarchist maneuverings, Indian stratagem and the Maoist duplicity, but he had realized by 2004 that he had little time and even less option of getting out of the Grand Design trap.
The attempt of reconciling the irreconcilable—monarchy and Maoists under multiparty democracy—was doomed to fail from the start. Monarchists laughed at the plan. The military mocked it. Maoists refused to entertain any such proposal. Forced to choose between antagonistic forces, he decided to go with the people rather than the palace. The rest, as the cliché goes, is history.
Observant underling
For most of his life, Sushil Koirala has lived under the shadow of his more prominent brothers. Old timers in NC insist that he rarely spoke unless spoken to in the presence of BP Koirala. He was no less in awe of GP. His colleagues recollect that he often uttered only one word in response to all suggestions of his party president: Hukum.
It’s an Urdu term that encompasses the meaning of everything from a sincere “Yes, Milord” to the slavish “Your wish is my command”. Insinuations that Sushil differed with GP’s decision of accommodating Maoists in the mainstream politics appear slightly exaggerated. Henchmen rarely have the need or the courage to disagree with the pronouncements of paterfamilias.
The Spring Uprising of 2006 was the crowning glory in NC’s checkered history. Circumstances had forced CPN-UML to distance itself from the royal-military clique and join street protests somewhat sheepishly. Maoists too mobilized their cadres to support the agitation of mainstream parties. The civil society and the media had given legitimacy and voice to the agitation.
But there was never any question about the leadership of Spring Uprising: It was GP who herded the kingdom towards a republic.
Unfortunately, the NC squandered away its third chance at the helms. Denied federalism, Madheshis deserted its ranks in hordes. Unsure of its commitments towards secularism, Dalits and Janajatis flocked towards Maoists. Angry at the NC’s ambivalence towards “ceremonial monarchy”, the PEON hitched its wagon to the cultural conservatism of CPN-UML. The NC was reduced to being the grand old party, a relic of 1950s, which had refused to learn the new vocabulary of politics and had added nothing fresh to its stale slogans. The jolt it got in Constituent Assembly elections was relatively mild mainly because Madheshis and Janjatis had failed to forge a united front.
Perhaps there was yet another force at play behind better-than-expected performance of NC in CA elections. The Indian establishment had refused to put all its eggs in the Maoist basket and had decided to distribute some of it around in Madheshi, UML and NC bins as well. Even when spooks lie, they add a dash of truth to sound convincing: The-then National Security adviser MK Narayanan was perhaps being selectively truthful when he revealed prior to CA elections that the Indian confidence in Maoists had waned and it wished for a NC win.
Sushil watched from close quarters as the Maoists reneged on their promise to make GP the first president of the republic. In retaliation, GP had to use his own socialist connections with Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar to engineer the triumph of Rambaran Yadav with the help of their fellow clansman Upendra Yadav of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum.
erhaps that was the only time in his entire political career when the MJF strongman was seen in the company of NC, a party that he has been groomed to disdain by his minders. Probably that was the point when Indians decided to use their influence in breaking up the MJF into little pieces and marshal fragments towards anti-Maoist politics once Pushpa Kamal Dahal began to tout his strategically foolhardy and geographically false “equi-distance” rhetoric of geopolitics in Nepal’s relationships with competing Asian powers.
Behind his beguiling demeanor of directness, Sushil is a shrewd strategist. NC insiders insist their chairperson used all possible connections including those at Shital Niwas, Bhadrakali, Lainchaur and Maharajgumj to ensure that the leadership of the party remained within the Koirala family despite caste equation of Chhetris that has congregated around the other claimant Sher Bahadur Deuba. His widely publicized confrontations with the Indian ambassador too were probably at the prodding of some undercover operators that were not very happy with the warmth Jayant Prasad had developed with Maoist-Madheshi alliance.
Wishful tool
It is quite likely that New Delhi refused to entertain Sushil’s claims of replacing Baburam Bhattarai at Baluwatar once the death of CA became necessary. Promises were probably extracted from them in order to engineer the dissolution of CA where Maoists had begun to exercise influence far in excess of their numbers on issues such as federalism, inclusion and secularism. The PEON wanted its pound of flesh and anti-Maoist forces in South Block couldn’t afford to alienate it.
The Indian establishment has made some amends by giving Sushil the honor ordinarily reserved for visiting former premiers of friendly countries in New Delhi. The rumor in town is that minders of Nepali affairs in the office of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have pledged to use their influence in forming an anti-Maoist coalition akin to the Madhav Nepal government consisting of Madheshbadi parties, the UML and the NC under Sushil’s leadership.
Considering that Indians can often wrangle whatever deal they want from Nepali politicos, it is possible that the reclusive NC leader would begin to be portrayed as the new savior of nationalism, democracy and harmony. The difficulty is that commitments of his party towards aspirations of majority of Nepalis are extremely underwhelming. The glow seen on the hirsute face of marginal Koirala at Tribhuvan International Airport may turn out to be premature.
The Nepali bourgeoisie backs India’s opponents in cricket matches but throngs to watch Shaharukh Khan gyrate, mimic and kick in Chennai Express. It loves Hinduism but hates Hindi and disdains Naxals but celebrates Narendra Modi. From green bangles to crimson vermilion and from frightfully expensive Banarasi sarees to the cloth required for patriotic waving of Double Triangle, every need of Nepal needs India’s goodwill. It is hard to imagine any country in the world so totally dependent on the other for its survival. Indians adroitly exploit their influence whenever they feel it necessary. However, the power of manipulation often fails when confronted with the will of the people.
The CA elections are going to be over progressive agenda of state restructuring of the republic through federalism, inclusion, secularism and transformation of the economy to a more egalitarian order. These are the issues where the marginalized and the externalized sections of population would find it hard to stand with hazy promises of anti-Maoist forces. That is when Sushil will probably discover that Indian promises and pledges change with every swing in the mood of the Nepali electorate or changes in the geopolitics of the region. He may then have to be content with the honor received as a former premier without having ever been one.
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