The drubbing of the parties now affiliated with Madheshi Morcha in the second Constituent Assembly elections in 2013 was the best evidence of their loss of popular support. Their chosen means of protest against the new constitution—blocking the key border points with India and bringing hardship to their countrymen—was the second best evidence of the Morcha's limited support among common Madheshis. If the Morcha was confident of its popularity, it could have again called common Madheshis to take to the streets in the support of its agendas. But keenly aware that the Madhesh-based parties now have only a fraction of the support they enjoyed during the first Madheshi Andolan in 2007, they chose the easy way out: of deploying a handful of cadres on key border points to block the movement of vehicles bearing fuel and daily necessities into Nepal. On their own, they would not have succeeded in blocking all the entry points along the long, porous India-Nepal border. But with India's active support, the Morcha managed to do the unthinkable. Now a third unmistakable proof of their limited support among common Madheshis is emerging.Morcha leaders have of late been making the rounds of the homes of top politicians of the neighboring Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. They have apparently been asking for addition manpower from these states to lend momentum to their agitation in Nepal against the new constitution. They have also been calling on regional Indian leaders to put pressure on the central government in New Delhi not to lift the blockade on Nepal easily. Perhaps Morcha leaders don't realize that most Nepalis, including Madheshis, find such acts of desperation deeply humiliating. How can political parties of one sovereign country ask individual political actors of another country to intervene? The images of Morcha leaders, their arms dutifully folded, lining up for audience with Bihari leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav do not go down well among the proud Madheshis. They know that these Morcha leaders should instead have been coming to their homes, asking for support for their agitation. But regaining public support through a concerted grassroots campaign could take months, if not years. Morcha, on the other hand, wants instant results.
The decision of the Big Three and Morcha on Monday to revive the dissolved taskforce that was given the responsibility of sorting out differences over the new constitution is a step in the right direction. There have of late been plenty of hints from the two main ruling parties as well as the main opposition, Nepali Congress, that they are ready to discuss all issues. In fact, the amendments of the new constitution on January 23rd were also a confidence-building measure as these amendments addressed two key demands of the agitating Madheshi parties. But Morcha refused to even acknowledge these amendments. They have instead since been busy running around India, trying to drum up support for their dull agitation. Their misguided attempt to carry out a revolution in Tarai-Madhesh by proxy is doomed to fail. Thanks to these self-defeating tactics, even the little public support they enjoy in Madhesh is fast evaporating.
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