KATHMANDU, May 23: Nepal’s provincial politics has entered a phase of renewed uncertainty as the ruling alliance between the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML is struggling to implement its earlier power-sharing agreements across all seven provinces. Under a coalition understanding reached in 2024, both parties agreed to rotate leadership in provincial governments after a fixed period. However, as deadlines approach or pass, disagreements over timing, interpretation, and political conditions have triggered instability from Koshi to Sudurpaschim.
While both parties publicly reaffirm their commitment to the coalition, the implementation of leadership transfer agreements has become increasingly complicated. Budget cycles, internal party dynamics, and central-level decision-making delays have further intensified the uncertainty, leaving provincial governments in a state of political anticipation.
Lumbini Province: Leadership transition at the center of negotiations
In Lumbini Province, discussions over a leadership change are currently at the forefront of political negotiations. The province is being led by Chief Minister Chet Narayan Acharya of UML under the coalition arrangement with the NC. According to the original power-sharing agreement, NC is now expected to assume leadership.
NC leaders in Lumbini argue that the agreed rotation timeline has already reached its implementation stage. Provincial NC President Amar Singh Pun stated that the party’s main agenda is to secure leadership in accordance with the agreement reached during government formation.
“We have clearly moved into the phase where leadership should be transferred to Nepali Congress,” Pun said, adding that discussions with UML at both provincial and central levels are ongoing.
However, UML leaders have taken a more cautious stance. They argue that any leadership transition must be finalized through formal central-level consensus between party top leadership. UML representatives in the province have also warned that a premature change, particularly ahead of the provincial budget presentation, could disrupt governance and fiscal planning.
The uncertainty has created a waiting period in Lumbini, where both parties continue informal negotiations while avoiding a direct breakdown of the coalition.
Karnali Province: Budget timing complicates power transfer
A similar situation is unfolding in Karnali Province, where Chief Minister Yamlal Kandel of UML currently leads the government with support from the NC. The original agreement reportedly included a rotation of leadership between the two parties, with NC expected to take over after a defined period.
NC leaders in Karnali have increasingly voiced their demand for leadership transition. However, UML maintains that the current arrangement should continue until the completion of the budget process, arguing that mid-cycle leadership changes could destabilize governance and financial planning.
NC leaders insist that the transition should occur before the presentation of the new fiscal budget. “We believe the leadership change must be completed before budget formulation so that the new government can implement its own priorities,” said NC Province President Amar Singh Pun.
Chief Minister on rotation basis yet to be discussed among coal...
On the other hand, UML leaders emphasize procedural stability and say that no final decision has yet been made at the central level. The province remains in a state of political limbo, with both parties awaiting directives from Kathmandu.
Bagmati Province: Stalled transition amid internal party pressure
In Bagmati Province, the issue of leadership transition has become more politically sensitive due to internal disagreements within parties as well as coalition complexities.
The province is currently led by Chief Minister Indra Bahadur Baniya of the NC, but under the earlier power-sharing arrangement, UML is expected to assume leadership in the next phase. However, the transfer has been delayed due to unresolved political discussions and shifting internal alignments within NC.
UML leaders maintain that the original agreement should be implemented without delay, while NC leaders appear divided on the timing and conditions of the transition. Some NC leaders argue that recent political developments require a reassessment of earlier commitments.
At the provincial level, both parties acknowledge that final decisions will come from central leadership. UML leaders say they are waiting for a formal directive, while NC insiders suggest that internal restructuring within the party has affected the pace of decision-making.
As a result, Bagmati remains one of the most politically uncertain provinces despite being the country’s administrative center.
Koshi Province: Leadership dispute still unresolved
In Koshi Province, discussions regarding leadership rotation have officially begun but remain inconclusive. NC is demanding leadership based on earlier coalition agreements, while UML argues that the current government led by Hikmat Karki should continue until the agreed term expires.
The province, which has long been politically sensitive due to its fragmented coalition structure, is once again facing uncertainty. Both parties have shifted responsibility to their central leadership, with provincial leaders stating that no final agreement can be reached locally.
NC leaders argue that the province should transition to a new leadership phase before the next budget cycle. UML leaders, however, insist that stability must be maintained until the original timeframe concludes.
Despite informal talks, no concrete agreement has been reached, and both parties are closely watching developments in Kathmandu.
Gandaki Province: Stability amid quiet political tension
Unlike other provinces, Gandaki has remained relatively stable under the leadership of Chief Minister Surendra Raj Pandey of the NC. However, political tension continues beneath the surface due to unresolved rotation commitments with UML.
Under the earlier agreement, UML leader Khagaraj Adhikari is expected to assume leadership after Pandey completes his term. However, NC appears reluctant to fully commit to a smooth transition, citing changes in political circumstances and numerical strength in the provincial assembly.
With relatively favorable parliamentary arithmetic, NC believes it may be able to sustain its leadership by adjusting coalition arrangements if necessary. This has created quiet tension between coalition partners, although no open confrontation has emerged.
Meanwhile, UML is observing the situation cautiously, aware that pushing too aggressively could risk destabilizing its own position within the coalition.
Sudurpaschim Province: Emerging coalition realignment talks
In Sudurpaschim Province, discussions have intensified over a broader political realignment involving NC, UML, and other constitutionally aligned parties. Although no formal agreement has been reached, political conversations suggest possible restructuring of the provincial government.
Currently led by Chief Minister Kamal Bahadur Shah of NC, the province has witnessed repeated coalition adjustments in recent years. UML is reportedly seeking a more active role in the government, while NC is engaged in internal consultations regarding power-sharing continuity.
Some political discussions even suggest a wider coalition framework involving multiple parties that supported the federal democratic system. However, all parties publicly deny any finalized agreement.
The province remains politically fluid, with leadership stability dependent on ongoing negotiations at the central level.
Madhesh Province: Coalition shift already underway
In Madhesh Province, the political equation has already shifted significantly. A revised coalition arrangement has brought UML into the NC-led government, replacing earlier partners Janata Samajbadi Party–Nepal and Janamat Party.
Chief Minister Krishna Prasad Yadav confirmed that UML is now part of the provincial government, and preparations are underway for ministerial reshuffling.
According to Yadav, the new coalition structure reflects evolving political alignments at the federal level. UML’s entry has changed the power balance within the province, making it one of the most dynamic political arenas in the country.
Madhesh currently reflects a broader national trend where coalition fluidity is becoming a defining feature of provincial governance.
National Picture: Rotation deals under strain
Across all seven provinces, a common pattern is emerging: political agreements based on power rotation are increasingly under strain. While NC and UML initially agreed to alternate leadership in provincial governments, implementation has been slowed by disputes over timing, budget cycles, and central-level coordination.
In many provinces, leaders continue to wait for formal instructions from Kathmandu rather than acting independently. This has created a centralized decision-making structure where provincial autonomy in coalition execution remains limited.
Budget timing has also emerged as a major factor influencing political decisions, with parties wary of disrupting fiscal planning through mid-term leadership changes.
Conclusion: Waiting for central consensus
As Nepal’s provincial governments navigate these overlapping political negotiations, one reality is becoming increasingly clear: the future of leadership transitions depends less on provincial agreements and more on central party consensus.
Until Kathmandu-based leadership of NC and UML issues final directives, most provinces are likely to remain in a state of political uncertainty. While coalition partners continue to express commitment to the original power-sharing deal, the actual transfer of authority remains pending across much of the country.
For now, Nepal’s provinces stand at a political crossroads—balancing governance stability against unresolved coalition commitments, with the next move firmly in the hands of the central leadership.
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