What India in collusion with Madheshi Morcha (a loose alliance of agitating parties in Nepal's Tarai plains) or vice versa intended through economic embargo and violent protests has been achieved. One and half months after Indian blockade, Nepal faces a humanitarian crisis.Hospitals have run out of vital supplies. In lack of cooking gas, commoners in Kathmandu are struggling to find firewood, educational institutions have been shut down, public transportation grounded, and the economy is bleeding. Foodstuffs such as rice, oil and lentils are unavailable and when available are sold for at least double the normal price. Print media is badly hit. Daily newspapers that used to be printed in as many as 24 pages come out in 12-page editions these days due to newsprint shortage. Republica has not been able to print the International New York Times owing to the same problem.
People make different speculations. Kathmandu, they say, will have to bow down ultimately.
Victim narrative has its merits. Once you are projected as a victim all shortcomings are ignored. Even violence is justified. Morcha narrative characterizes all Madheshis as victims fighting for their just rights. The State is using brute force to quell the agitation, forcing them to flee to non-man's land across the border. If India comes to their aid, it is because they are the victims.
Tharus, Jajajatis and women are also projected as those warring against the state for their rights. All Pahadis, in this narrative, are oppressors who deserve to be avenged.
Victim narratives form a discourse (or counter-discourse) during unrests. It is not questioned because there is heightened emotionality attached to it and also because one does not want to sound politically incorrect. This, however, should not be allowed to black out other side of the story.
Morcha protestors were not forced to flee. They chose to go to the no-man's land to block supplies after the agitation failed to gain momentum. They hurl stones at Nepali Police from across the border. They provoke police and police, at times, respond by opening fire randomly.
Janajatis and Tharus have strong reservations with Morcha's unofficial alliance with India. Their concern is different from what Madheshi leaders have made it appear. Tharus have already withdrawn agitation in Tharu heartlands of western Nepal after the government initiated proportional inclusion through constitution amendment. One Tharu leader told this scribe that Congress/UML should have dealt with Tharu's and Morcha's demands separately.
Environment for decisive dialogue can be created if Morcha and government act together. But Morcha wants government to recall security forces from the ground first. The government is reluctant to do so fearing arson on police posts and public offices. If Morcha stops border obstructions and gives up rigid demands (such as disconnecting all plains from hills and executive posts for naturalized citizens) it will help build pressure on the government to address "genuine" concerns of Madheshis, and Kathmandu and Madhesh could find a meeting point. But Morcha is constantly shifting goal posts. Some of its leaders are inciting their cadres to spread anti-China sentiments.
The mayhem and blockade continues, exposing cruel intentions of both Morcha and India. Take Monday's Birgunj incident. Nepali authorities let Indian trucks stranded in Nepal to pass, hoping that their Indian counterparts would reciprocate (it is learnt that Indian authorities had promised to). Until Indian containers passed Morcha cadres stood silent, and India's border security force (SSB) cooperated. When it came to Nepal's turn to have its goods stranded on Indian side enter Nepal, Morcha cadres went wild and SSB watched as mute spectator. An Indian youth was killed.
Following the death of its citizen India should have put pressure on Morcha to clear border obstructions and asked Nepal government to sit for talks with Morcha immediately. Instead, both have made it an excuse to prolong the blockade.
The blockade is unlikely to be lifted anytime soon, until Kathmandu capitulates and Morcha/India get what they want: province demarcation that concentrates all vital water resources, fertile lands and industrial hubs in plain provinces, leaving rest of the country at the mercy of plain provinces and India in perpetuity.
It looks like Kathmandu will have to make a hard compromise soon. Resilience alone cannot help deal with crisis of this magnitude. First, one and half months since the imposition of blockade, a large section of Nepal's civil society and intelligentsia have not recognized it as a proper blockade. They call it border obstruction. Nor has Nepal been able to raise this issue at SAARC level despite being its incumbent head.
Second, Nepal has failed to internationalize the crisis. Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa should be thanked for drawing international attention in Geneva. But by referring to cruel blockade as "obstruction of essential supplies at border points," he has made it seem that Nepal is suffering because of its inability to address its political problems. Perhaps because we dither like this, international missions based in Nepal refrain from mentioning Indian blockade in their "concerns" expressed through press releases. So the EU nations, the US and UN, have only been stating the obvious: Nepal is on the verge of serious humanitarian crisis due to fuel shortage. But it means nothing.
Third, Nepal has turned to China and it has been responding with kindness too. But it will take at least few months to normalize trade with China due to impenetrable geographical passes at northern points. It takes days for petrol containers to reach Kathmandu from Kerung. Tatopani border point is in ruins after April earthquakes.
The situation is such that unless some true friends or well-wishing donor community, out of love and sympathy for the tiny Himalayan nation, take it upon themselves to put pressure on India to lift the blockade on humanitarian grounds, this crisis is unlikely to draw international attention. But this cannot happen unless Nepal prods its well wishers, which in turn is again unlikely given the 'suffer but do not stop looking up to India' mentality of our leaders.
Some have started to predict the worst. A minister without portfolio could not just have spewed venom against India when he recently said that India is planning to mobilize military along the border.
Life has become a nightmare. There is no cooking gas, wage earners have been without work, millions of transportation workers have been laid off, businesses are collapsing and prices of edible oil, rice, lentils have rocketed. As the government fails to ease daily life, it won't be long before desperate public will say what Morcha and India are desperate to hear: Let them do whatever they want.
Anger against blockade is being diverted to KP Oli government. He has failed to control black marketing and has made mockery of government by appointing half a dozen deputy prime ministers. He has made a laughingstock of himself even before he has given complete shape to his cabinet. Don't be surprised if Morcha demands dismissal of Oli and general public seconds it. After all, this is what India apparently wants. None of the vital posts (PM, President, VP, Speaker) has gone to leaders that India/Morcha back.
As a mammoth nation (22 times as big as Nepal) and third largest economy in the world which surrounds Nepal on three sides, India (to which Nepal has historically depended on trade and transit) can bring Nepal to its knees. With UN and US's silence against Indian aggression, this could be possible. The question facing Nepal is whether to prostrate or to continue to resist.
The moment people start to starve, Nepal will be forced to do what Morcha and India want. Greater question facing country's educated mass is whether to lead a life of living death or oppose blockade, for as long as they can, through whatever means available.
mahabirpaudyal@gmail.com
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