Discontent outside lingers as Oli tightens control in his party

KATHMANDU, Dec 20: KP Sharma Oli has completed a hat-trick of victory as CPN-UML chair, which shows he's still got a massive backing in the party, even if party dissidents and people outside the UML are not so happy with his victory. His victory is remarkable as he crushed the opponent by securing 1,663 votes to his arch rival Ishwar Pokhrel’s 564 in the election held for party chair’s seat during the party 11th General Convention. His real power, though, is in the central committee. About 227 of the 301 members of the new central committee are on his side.

With so many votes, Oli can pretty much do what he wants within the party for the next five years. About two-thirds of general convention representatives voted for the incumbent chair they knew well, someone who was seen as a safe bet for them. Since Oli has so many central committee members agreeing with him, Oli can make choices without having to argue much with opponents in the party. For those UML leaders and cadres, who are worried about things falling apart, this is a piece of good news. They have now started believing that the new central committee, dominated by Oli loyalists, will lead the party working together and making better planning for the next elections.

However, there are many people in the nation who believe that his return to the UML helm has not augured well for contemporary politics. On September 8-9, the Gen Z protests saw 76 people dead, number of public and private properties torched and Oli’s government toppled. The movement brought historic changes aimed at ending corruption, establishing rule of law and accountability. The current caretaker government says it is moving towards achieving these goals. The Gen Z protesters strongly wanted that rulers and political parties, chiefly the UML and the Nepali Congress, should listen to their grudges and work addressing the youths demands. Sadly, several political parties have now been struggling to bring changes in their leadership and their functioning style, let alone realizing Gen Z aspirations.

The outcome following the UML general convention in which the party men picked a tested-and-tried leader, would not send a positive message to the youths and those who wanted changes taking place in the UML pecking order. Meanwhile, Oli has made harsh comments against Gen Z youths and the current government terming it unconstitutional, which has further angered the youths and people at large, who allege that Oli is deeply involved in corruption. For them, he has not realized that the nation slipped into bad governance due to corrupt ways of traditional parties, including his own.

Politically, the election outcome showed that the party's thinking is detached from what the majority of people feel in the nation. The people have desired that the nation have youth leaders having energy and ideas towards good governance and end of corruption for which they allege many leaders of traditional parties. The Gen Z movement changed the government overnight and showed young people can bring changes when they come together. But the UML general convention and its election outcome hinted that party insiders have an entrenched inclination to embrace the status quo over listening to the youths who are craving for changes.

Certainly, Oli and his team’s victory won’t make people forget September's deaths and mayhem. It might make people more annoyed since they thought parties would change after that chaotic period that forced the then Prime Minister, Oli, to leave his official residence in an army helicopter. A few hours delay in leaving Baluwatar residence would have made him an object of physical attack by an angry mob on the afternoon of September 9.

So, what does the UML party election outcome mean for Nepal's national politics? By all means, Oli will push to get the dissolved House reinstated and challenge the current government even more. He has got a lot of committee members backing him, along with several others from the Nepali Congress. He would do everything he could to make it happen. As victory has emboldened him further, he is expected to launch more aggressive campaigning and impart sharper political messages soon towards the House restoration.

But there are risks for him too. The current care-taker government has already scheduled general elections for March 5 and a considerable number of individuals, Gen Z youths, civil society members, media, leaders cutting across political parties are of the opinion that the elections must be held on the scheduled date. Many of these people have supported the idea behind the September Gen Z movement. If the UML remains glued to the same old leaders who care less about bringing changes as per youths demand, and doesn't care about addressing youths demands, it might lose supporters outside of its party base.

Parties still listen to their own party men more than to what people on the streets have been asking for. This does not ensure that such backing from the party insiders can make a leader successful in national polity. Having the backing from like-minded party men gives a leader an edge within the party only as it doesn't automatically mean a large section of the population will support them.

Many believe that following the massive Gen Z movement, many supporters and voters of political parties have shown their dislikes for old, tested and tried leaders like Oli, Shankar Pokhrel, Mahesh Basnet and others. Finally, Oli’s strong showing in the party’s leadership election has given him a platform. But what remains to be seen is whether that platform will bring him required public support when he and his loyalists go to election. Because winning a party election is easier than leading a party to perform better is an uphill task, especially given his poor rating in terms of corruption and bad governance during his stay in power.