A Shared Himalayan Climate Threat

The Himalayas-often called the "Third Pole" for their vast store of ice and snow-are melting faster than ever. The consequences of this fundamental shift in the climate system extend across South Asia, reshaping rivers, agriculture, energy systems and the lives of millions. For Nepal and India, which share not only a 1,800-kilometer open border but also an intricate network of rivers and ecosystems, climate change is not an abstract threat in the distant future. It is an unfolding crisis that binds their destinies more tightly than any political change, treaty or trade deal ever could.

Yet despite this shared vulnerability, climate change remains a marginal topic in official Nepal–India dialogues. Though the two neighbours have long cooperated on water, energy and connectivity, they have yet to make climate resilience an agenda of their partnership. As these impacts intensify, from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) to erratic monsoons and transboundary flooding, the need for joint action has never been more urgent.

As the world prepares to make a crucial push to accelerate climate action, including the implementation of the Paris Agreement, Nepal and India are entering the global climate stage with intertwined challenges and interests. Events like COP30 offer a rare opportunity for both countries to push the Himalayas—the planet's critical but neglected climate hotspot—to the forefront of global negotiations. For Kathmandu and New Delhi, putting forward a coordinated Himalayan climate agenda could not only strengthen their bargaining power but also secure the financing and technology needed to safeguard the region's fragile future.

A Shared Geography, a Shared Risk

Nepal sits at the heart of the Himalayas, occupying approximately an 880-kilometer stretch of the mountain range that feeds major river systems like the Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali. These rivers cross into India, nourishing the fertile plains of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal — regions of India highly dependent on meltwater from the Himalayas for farming and survival.

But this very source of abundance is turning into a source of danger in the near future. Accelerated glacial thinning and retreat have created and expanded glacial lakes, many dammed by fragile moraines of rock and ice. When these barriers give way, torrents of water and debris are released in GLOFs, which can devastate downstream communities. Already, 24 GLOFs have occurred in Nepal during recent decades, including major disasters in 1964, 1981 and 1985 that destroyed roads, power projects and several human settlements. In the most recent cases, a GLOF from Thyanbo glacial lake caused severe flooding in Thame village in Solukhumbu on August 16, 2024. Similarly, in July of 2025, a GLoF coupled with a heavy rainfall in the Tibetan Himalayas destroyed the Rasuwagadhi-Kerung Friendship Bridge, disrupting the main trade route between Nepal and China. These extreme weather events caused losses amounting to billions of rupees.

What happens upstream in Nepal quickly spills into India. GLOFs, flash floods and landslides can damage cross-border infrastructure, disrupt power supply from hydropower plants based in Nepal and endanger lives in India's northern states. Conversely, changes in Nepal's rainfall and snowmelt patterns directly affect water flow into the Ganga Basin, Asia's most populous river system. This interconnected hydrology means that neither country can address climate risks in isolation.

Hydropower Investments at Risk

Hydropower has become the cornerstone of Nepal–India energy cooperation. Nepal currently exports 1,000 MW of electricity on an average to India and 40 MW to Bangladesh. India has lately emerged as Nepal's largest investor, financing more than 3,400 megawatts of installed capacity through projects like the 900 MW Arun III and the 900 MW Upper Karnali. The Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency has even acquired a 10 percent stake in the latter, underlining the growing economic and strategic importance of Nepal's rivers for India's energy security.

Yet, the projects designed to harness Nepal's hydropower potential are increasingly threatened by climate change. Mass rainfall, glacial flooding, and landslides have harmed or delayed hydropower projects nationwide. This extreme rain has washed away several hydro projects along the river basins regularly; investments made in hydropower plants may be far more vulnerable than acknowledged.

This reality should have placed climate resilience at the centre of bilateral energy planning. Yet, even during high-profile state visits from both Nepal and India, the focus has remained largely on megawatt targets and export agreements. When Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited India in June 2023, the two governments finalised a major 10,000 MW electricity trade agreement — but the joint statement mentioned climate change only in passing, in the context of flood control.

The Silence at the Top

This is not a new diplomatic silence. In 2014, a 35-point joint communiqué was issued during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first visit to Nepal, none of which mentioned climate change. Over the next several such bilateral visits, this continued to persist. The absence says much about how both governments tend to treat climate change as secondary to economic goals. The consequences of such a neglect are only growing. Transboundary river agreements between the two countries-the Koshi (1954), Gandak (1959) and Mahakali (1996) treaties-were framed decades ago, long before the climate crisis became evident. They address issues of water sharing and power generation but have little to say about sustainable basin management, glacial risks or ecosystem health. These treaties do not cover sustainable water management, advance participation or recognize emerging risks brought about by climate change.

From Hydropower Diplomacy to Climate Diplomacy

For Nepal and India to thrive in a climate uncertain future, their partnership must expand beyond transactional hydropower deals to a meaningful climate alliance founded on science, equity and shared security. The two countries already share deep cultural, economic and ecological connections and the building blocks for such a transformation already exist. What is required is the political will to institutionalize cooperation and the vision to reimagine the Himalayan waterscape as a collaborative space rather than one of contention.

A first critical step would be the setting up of a Permanent Nepal-India Climate and Water Commission to replace the patchwork of temporary committees that currently oversee transboundary rivers. This body should bring hydrologists, climate scientists, and disaster-management experts together to coordinate real-time data exchange and harmonize basin-wide policies including overseeing joint water governance. By institutionalizing collaboration, both countries could move from reactive responses to proactive, scientific evidence-based planning.

Flood management, which has been recognized as one of the most critical challenges, requires real-time data sharing and early warning systems. Data on upstream rainfall and river levels from Nepal is critical for predicting floods in downstream Indian states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The installation of automated telemetry stations, integrating satellite-based monitoring and joint disaster control rooms with shared dashboards, would transform preparedness. Similarly, community-based early warning systems are critical. It is essential to recognize that structural measures alone cannot save life and property. Nature-based infrastructure—restoring forests, wetlands, and floodplains—can complement traditional embankments and dams by soaking up runoff, cutting sedimentation and stabilizing fragile mountain slopes. This “eco-engineering” approach would turn flood control into an opportunity for ecological restoration and carbon sequestration, thereby aligning development with environmental sustainability.

Both Nepal's Terai and the northern plains in India are vulnerable to flooding, droughts and heat stress. Many experts in Nepal have emphasized joint adaptation projects on renewable energy, agroforestry, bamboo cultivation and ecotourism that can create green jobs while strengthening local resilience. Nepal and India could jointly access international climate funds and co-lead initiatives under regional bodies. Similarly, a parallel, Trans-Himalayan Climate Research Network could generate essential data on glacial retreat, snowmelt and sediment flow—filling the knowledge gap in one of the most climate-sensitive parts of the world.

Path Ahead

As the crises wrought by climate change mount, these antiquated bilateral treaties need to give way to a Transboundary Rivers and Climate Resilience Treaty that recognizes climate change as a common security threat. Such a framework should enshrine ecological safeguards and equitable water-sharing principles, balancing upstream and downstream interests. If Nepal and India can take these steps once an elected government is formed in Kathmandu, then they can turn shared vulnerabilities into shared strength and usher in a new era of climate resilience and regional solidarity.

The way ahead is to convert India-Nepal hydrological interdependence into climate cooperation. It is no longer an option but an inevitability -- shared rivers, glaciers and monsoons call for joint adaptation. Embracing shared responsibility, putting investment in science-based solutions and empowering local-regional cooperation will allow them to build a model of transboundary climate resilience for the whole Himalayan region. If they act now, the two nations can turn shared vulnerability into shared strength - protect millions from climate-induced disasters, foster sustainable growth, regional stability and a more secure future for generations to come.