The UML´s decision opens up, at least theoretically, two possibilities. First, an NC-UML majority government, and second, a Maoist-UML majority government. [break]
Let´s take up the second possibility first. Many UML leaders still think that the ideal government at present would be a coalition between the UML and the Maoists, led by Jhalanath Khanal.
But the rub is, the NC´s prime ministerial candidate, Ram Chandra Paudel, will have to withdraw his candidacy first. "That´s not going to happen until there is an agreement between the NC and the UML to elect Paudel as the next prime minister" said an NC leader.
Latest developments in the Maoist party make a Maoist-UML coalition even less likely. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Vice-chairman Mohan Baidya have joined hands, leaving another Vice-chairman, Baburam Bhattarai, out in the cold.
Will the UML, and more precisely Khanal, be ready to accept Paudel as prime minister? Yes, but only if the NC agrees to replace the government leadership with Khanal within some agreed timeframe.
Is the NC ready for that? "Since we don´t have a majority of our own, we will have to strike a deal with other parties and we are open for negotiations with the UML," said Paudel.
Actually, preliminary talks in this direction have already begun between the NC and UML, but a lot still needs to be negotiated. The NC wants Paudel to lead the next government until the peace process is completed under its leadership, something the UML is finding hard to buy.
"What if the peace process remains incomplete for the next several months, if not years?" asked an UML leader, adding, "And if the peace process is done with in the next few months, the Maoist party may have a legitimate claim to form a national consensus government".
UML leader Pradeep Gyawali says that the NC and UML can negotiate and agree on an entire range of issues; address each other´s concerns; and reach a comprehensive deal. "We can and must agree on the timeline of the peace process and at which point in time the transfer of leadership will take place," said Gyawali.
The negotiations won´t be easy and may take a long time, but negotiating an alternative coalition seems far more difficult, if not impossible. "We don´t have any option but to make this coalition happen," said an NC leader.
And if the NC and UML strike a deal the Madhesi and other fringe parties joining the coalition is almost a foregone conclusion. The only difficulty then would be to divide the portfolios among the parties, each vying for the plum ministries.
The likely course of politics ahead is this: The Maoist proposal to amend the regulations for electing the prime minister will be defeated in the special session since the UML has also decided to vote against it. Once the proposal is defeated, Paudel´s candidacy will remain intact and then the hectic negotiations between the UML and NC will begin.
Paudel doesn´t want to face uncertainty in the rough and tumble of politics and his preference would be to get elected as the next prime minister without having to withdraw his present candidacy. He doesn´t want to open up room where other candidates, including NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, may throw themselves into the fray.
But he is unlikely to get that. "We have publicly pledged, through a four-point agreement with the Maoists, not take part in the voting for prime minister until the present election process is scrapped and it will be morally difficult for us to dishonor that pledge," said Gyawali.
In the end, Paudel is likely to withdraw his candidacy once he is fully reassured, through a written, public agreement among the major parties to elect him as the next prime minister.
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