Below is a briefing on why the leaders feel more confident about the talks this time around, how much progress they have made, and what still remains to be negotiated. [break]
MORE SINCERITY, MORE CONFIDENCE
The mood at Hattiban and Gokarna resorts was different this time since the word go. There was more sincerity and eagerness among the leaders for a negotiated settlement out of the current deadlock. “Even if we had no idea of how to get out of this mess, we all agreed that it cannot and should not continue any longer,” said a leader who attended both the meetings. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal offered his own roadmap to conclude the peace process, mainly a plan to address the PLA issue, at Hattiban, offering a good start. The NC and the UML (especially Madhav Nepal-K P Oli camp) weren’t happy as they considered it “inadequate”, but at the same time they felt relieved that Dahal had at least come up with a proposal to conclude the peace process.
Maoist Chairman Dahal, more confident than ever that other parties will eventually accept a government under his leadership, is playing a proactive role in the negotiations. The NC parliamentary party leader and lone candidate in the ongoing prime ministerial race, Ram Chandra Paudel, had categorically told a press conference a few weeks ago that the NC was ready to accept Dahal as prime minister once PLA issue was sorted out.
PROGRESS IN TALKS
Maoist Chairman Dahal has proposed a four-week plan to “sort out” the PLA issue. According to his proposal, coordinator of the secretariat proposed for overseeing integration and rehabilitation of over 19,000 PLA combatants will be named in the first week. In the second week, the combatants will be handed over to the Special Committee and in the third week they will be categorized into different groups depending upon whether they want to join the army, join other security agencies or take the rehabilitation package and go back to society. This will be a voluntary regrouping of the PLA combatants as per their individual wish. And in the fourth week, coalition government will be formed. Dahal has outlined options for power sharing. On government leadership, he has said that his party, by virtue of being the largest in the Constituent Assembly, has a claim on leadership but again that’s not a precondition of his party.
PROBLEMS REMAIN
The NC and UML have appreciated Dahal’s proposal on peace process but maintain that it’s inadequate and lacks specificity. More skeptical leaders in the NC and UML even see a catch in the Maoist proposal: “What if the Maoists linger the integration/rehabilitation process once regrouping is done since they haven’t made any pledge about when the combatants will leave the cantonments?” asked a government minister.
Not satisfied with the Maoist proposal, the NC and UML drafted their joint roadmap to end the peace process and gave it to Maoist Chairman Dahal at Gokarna Resort during the second round of talks. The NC and UML have demanded that the Maoists at least reach a gentleman’s agreement with them on the number of PLA combatants to be recruited into the army and security agencies. They should also agree about the standard norms for integration and rehabilitation package. The NC and UML have also demanded return of seized property, de-barracking of YCL, ending the PLA’s security given to the Maoist leaders, and handing over of the temporary number plate vehicles (which are basically smuggled vehicles used by the Maoist leaders) to the government.
After going through the NC-UML roadmap, according to a leader present at the Gokarna talks, Maoist Chairman Dahal became furious and accused the NC and UML of trying to push the Maoists to the wall. NC-UML leaders defended their roadmap and after they had shared their perspectives Dahal calmed down and proposed to discuss it in detail in the next meeting.
“Even after we have presented a concrete proposal to conclude the peace process and shown enough flexibility on power-sharing, the NC and some sections of UML still doubt our sincerity; this will only invite a disaster” a Maoist leader fumed.
An NC leader insisted that they wouldn’t buy a ‘vague’ proposal of the Maoists. “We want to make sure that the peace process is not stalled again or reversed.”
A successful negotiation from here will have to guarantee two things: First, the NC is convinced that a reliable and irreversible peace process has begun, and second, the Maoists get the government leadership or are fully assured that they will get it after a reasonable time frame.
IS NEGOTIATION LIKELY TO FALTER?
It’s unlikely to. Listen to Maoist Chairman Dahal’s recent public comments, read his body language and go through his political paper to be presented in the party’s upcoming plenum and you will find ample hint about one thing: He doesn’t want to leave the peace process and is eager to strike a deal.
Dahal has already tried his tirade against India, a bluff against the political parties and a threat of revolt to the country but nothing worked. As another CA deadline looms in May 2011, Dahal must have realized that it’s his party that would lose the most if the CA were to be dismissed. Unless he wants to revert back to war, he must negotiate with the parties and that’s what he is doing now. The parties may or may not be able to strike a deal before the Maoist plenum slated for November 21, but all of them have enough incentives to keep negotiating.
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