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More confrontations ahead
Politics is headed for more conflict and confrontation. Though the leaders often talk of consensus and collaboration this has so far remained a mere slogan. In reality, there is a fierce conflict between the parties and there is hardly any common ground for an agreement. The differences among the parties will only grow in the days to come and it will push the country further towards conflict.
Regular House session
Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal will soon start consultations with the political parties to reach an understanding on when to call the regular session of parliament. Though the three parties [UCPN (M), NC and UML] had agreed to call the regular session ´as soon as possible´ the agreement doesn´t specifically mention the timeframe. I have heard some leaders saying that the session should be called within a week but that´s an individual interpretation of the agreement. It may take as long as three weeks before the regular session actually begins.
Possible alliances
It´s too early to predict the future alliance between the parties. But theoretically speaking, there are at least three possibilities. First, a Maoist-led alliance; second an NC-UML alliance and third an UML- Maoist alliance. There is very slim chance that a Maoist-led government will be formed since both the NC and UML have clearly said that Maoist leadership would be unacceptable until the peace process is completed and the Maoist party transformed itself into a truly civilian party. Madhesi parties have also refused to back a Maoist-led government. This leaves us with an alliance between either the NC and UML or the Maoists and UML.
NC-UML democratic alliance
The need of the hour is to further strengthen the existing democratic alliance and to put more pressure on the Maoists to come into the democratic mainstream; complete the peace process; and promulgate the new constitution. Since the Maoists have not yet given up their mindset of capturing the state by force, are threatening a revolt, and are still hesitant to detach the party from their arms and army, strengthening the democratic alliance has become even more urgent.
But this will depend upon whether the NC and UML will be able to negotiate and strike a deal before NC leader Ram Chandra Paudel withdraws his candidacy for PM. If there is no deal until Paudel withdraws his candidacy, it will become difficult to cobble an NC-UML alliance afterwards. The Maoists will try to take advantage of the situation and this will create complications within the UML.
UML-Maoist coalition
If the Maoists announce support for UML Chairman Jhala Nath Khanal as the next prime minister, it will stir a new debate in the UML. Some UML leaders will definitely argue that the party should go for a government headed by the party chairman and it should not miss the opportunity. But there will be a counter-argument as well: Should the party opt to lead a government with the backing of the Maoists, which will only make the government a puppet of the Maoist party or should we first press the Maoists to agree to the UML´s roadmap for peace and constitution? UML-Maoist collaboration will be possible only if the Maoist party agrees to detach itself from its combatants, bring them under the government-formed special committee and agree a timeline on completing the peace process as proposed by the UML.
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