No more brinkmanship

Jhala Nath Khanal, Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), has spoken out the truth that everyone already knew but none of the top political party leaders dared to say in public: There is now no possibility of writing the constitution by May 28. UML parliamentary party members have for their part urged the party leadership to consult other parties to officially push back the deadline so that there is no constitutional crisis come May 28. We must appreciate the sincerity shown by Khanal and UML CA members in speaking out the truth and also in asking other parties to work together to address the looming constitutional crisis. We believe that the country has exhausted all options other than extending the CA deadline for addressing this political and constitutional uncertainty.



Some have argued that there is no provision in the interim constitution for extending the deadline. True, the interim constitution did not envisage extension of the CA’s term except under a situation of national emergency. However, that doesn’t mean this particular clause of the constitution cannot be amended. The sovereign parliament can amend any clause of the interim constitution if that is deemed necessary in the larger interest of the country. The only obstacle now to such an amendment is a lack of the trust among the political parties that is needed for moving together and charting a joint political course.



There is still a lot of political brinkmanship going on. Both the government (and the parties that are part of it) and the Maoists see May 28 as an opportunity to force the other side to capitulate. The government’s calculation is that, if it doesn’t relent till May 28, the Maoists will feel compelled to compromise and strike a deal since the post-May 28 period will not be in their favor. The Maoists seem to calculate just the opposite: After May 28 this government will lose its legitimacy and it will be a lot easier to unseat it, if necessary through street pressure.



In reality, the post-May 28 situation will be a double-edged sword that can cut either way. It is, therefore, in the interest of the parties and the country to give up brinkmanship, engage in sincere political dialogue and strike a deal before it’s too late.



Unfortunately, instead of engaging in dialogue and exploring options for agreement the parties are sticking to their guns. The Maoists are already marshalling their cadres for a “rebellion” to capture the state. Their strategy, at the minimum, is to bring in thousands of cadres to Kathmandu around May 28, paralyze the capital city, and force the government to enter into negotiations in which they will have the upper hand. The government is underestimating the Maoists’ ability to mobilize the masses, and is banking on the security forces to contain them. This is a path to confrontation and showdown, the outcome of which is unpredictable. The parties are best advised to avoid it.

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