Two major periodic events, which can be instrumental in the country’s development planning for the next several years, will take place in 2011. While the outcome of the National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS), which is conducted in Nepal every five years, will excite only health professionals, the population census will certainly influence the entire nation and beyond.[break]
By mid-June 2011, over 35,000 enumerators, almost half of them female, will reach every door, counting the head of every Nepali. Within the next four months, perhaps before Dashain, the preliminary report of the census will be out, which is likely to unravel many surprising facts and figures of fascinating changes in the composition of Nepal’s population in the past decade.
Making sense of the past decade
The census will also be important to make sense of all the important events the country witnessed in the last decade. The period saw political upheavals, ranging from the Maoist insurgency to the abolition of monarchy.
In the first decade, the Maoist insurgency reached its climax, causing mass migrations of people. Their displacement, from war-torn villages to relatively safer district headquarters and major cities, ultimately led to the ballooning of Kathmandu’s population. The civil war also spurred the migration of youth to foreign countries.
The 250-year-old Shah monarchy, backed by Hinduism and Hindu nationalism, was abolished in the wake of the People’s Movement in 2006 that was later known as the April Uprising; and the country became avowedly the youngest federal democratic republic in the world in May 2008 by official declaration. These are not merely political phenomena; these changes bear some implications on various social spheres as well.
This important political change occurring in the last decade was the declaration of Nepal as a secular state. Consequently, Nepal is no longer a Hindu “kingdom” in the aftermath of the abolition of its monarchy. It is, therefore, likely to have pretty interesting impacts on the population, as will be enumerated in the forthcoming census. Thus, the new census will authentically deal with all these political changes with socio-economic implications.
When the final report of the census is published by the end of 2011, even the existing and assumed social and religious landscapes of Nepal will no longer remain relevant. Be it in caste and indigenous compositions or religious groups, changes are sure to surface, which will influence politics as well. With politicians increasingly cementing their casteist, ethnic and religious factors in their manifest activities, the census will create governmental ripples, too.
In the new census, the total population is sure to exceed 28 million, as projected in the previous census in 2001. However, intriguingly, this is the only thing that can be ascertained at this moment. Everything else is uncertain. Hindus may no longer be as large a religious community as it has been perceived till now. Some minor religious groups are likely to get bigger, albeit slightly.
In fact, in eastern Nepal, some ethnicity-based political parties are asking ethnic groups, mainly Rais and Limbus, to clearly tell the enumerators that they are actually Kirantis, not Hindus. This awareness campaign, to some extent, is as old as the previous census. This means that the size of the Hindu community may shrink in the latest census, as far as east Nepal is concerned.
In fact, the vigilantism of the indigenous nationalities goes back to the first historic People’s Movement of 1990 when, soon after, ethnic communities charged the state of wrongly portraying them as Hindus. They argued that the state did so with ulterior motives – that of consolidating the Hinduism-based foundation of the monarchy. Now, will more ethnic people introduce themselves as non-Hindus? Does their argument hold water? The census will answer such questions, and of course, in very interesting manners.
A comprehensive counting
Apart from political changes, the last decade has witnessed a sea change in the development of technology as well. When the previous census was held, very few people had e-mail addresses to flaunt their Yahoo and Hotmail accounts. Ten years down the lane, very few people use Yahoo or Hotmail. Urban youths mostly chat on Gmail, Facebook, Twitter and other split-second electronic mediums.
Ten years ago, only some well-off people had cell phones, and they disclosed their numbers only to their near and dear ones. With Nepal Telecom (NTC) announcing waiver charge for receiving calls, and the inflow of cheap cell phones into local markets, almost every Ram, Shyam and Sita are now seen using their mobile phones.
How far has the access of common people to Internet and mobile phone service increased? The upcoming census will try to answer this question as well. In fact, as officials at the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) say, the new census is very comprehensive. It will unearth more detailed statistics, ranging from physically disabled to internally displaced people during the war.
Interestingly, the new census will also highlight the number of third gender Nepalis. In the last decade, delivering one of its landmark verdicts, the Supreme Court (SC) legally recognized the status of third gender in Nepal. Has the SC’s verdict encouraged more LGBT members to come out vocally? The census will provide the answer.
In 1911, when the first population census took place, the list of questions was very limited. It focused only on finding out the numbers of persons, families, genders and age groups. Today’s census is not just about headcounts. It is indeed an undertaking to unveil the country’s economic, social, political, religious and ethnic and caste landscapes.
However, obviously under pressure from donor agencies, the new census may also try to deal with some inappropriate issues. One such issue is fertility. The CBS has incorporated a question about fertility rates into its questionnaires. But a question arises: Will illiterate women living in conservative societies frankly tell the enumerators about their pregnancies and miscarriages? It is a tough task, particularly for male enumerators in the Tarai-Madhesh.
And the professional integrity of enumerators themselves is another huge question. They are often criticized for collecting statistics of people while sitting in some teashop, rather than reaching every one’s door. In the previous census, they did not visit every household on the pretext of the Maoist insurgency. With the end of the civil war, they have no such excuses. They should acknowledge the fact that even their minor errors may result in some serious consequences.
The population census is not like any other sample survey. The CBS should not leave any stone unturned to make sure that the findings are correct to the optimum. Every Nepali also should be aware that all the required details the enumerators will truthfully furnish will help the state to identify priorities and plan accordingly while the citizens will know themselves in new light. If wrong details are provided, it will harm the nation and its people.