KATHMANDU, Nov 9: Nepal's catastrophic Himalayan glacial collapse and downstream flash floods have been highlighted in a new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report as a stark example of the growing risks confronting communities in fragile, warming mountain regions as the global climate crisis intensifies and a powerful El Niño threatens to drive temperatures and extreme weather even higher.
The WMO's State of the Climate Update 2026, released on Monday, the opening day of the UN climate conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, warns that 2026 is set to become one of the four warmest years on record, with a developing El Niño expected to amplify global temperatures and extreme weather risks well into 2027.
The report cites the catastrophic ice and rock collapse and subsequent flash floods in the Himalayas in late August, which killed more than 1,300 people and inflicted massive economic losses, as an illustration of the compound risks facing communities in fragile, warming high-mountain terrain.
"We are supercharging our weather, and El Niño will be a risk multiplier," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, highlighting the intensification of heatwaves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms beyond historical expectations.
She cited the Himalayan disaster as evidence of the growing risks confronting communities in fragile, warming high-mountain environments.
Nepal's Himalayan disaster takes centre stage at COP31 climate...
According to the report, the global average surface temperature between January and September 2026 was approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. The past four years, from 2023 to 2026, are expected to constitute the four warmest years since records began.
The warming trend is likely to intensify as El Niño develops. The phenomenon has been strengthening since August and is expected to become exceptionally strong by December. It typically increases annual global average temperatures by around 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius, with its greatest influence often felt in the year following its development.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world had entered a new era of climate extremes, with those least responsible for climate change suffering its worst consequences.
"Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition away from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need," Guterres said.
The report also highlights accelerating changes in the cryosphere, a particularly important concern for Nepal and other Himalayan countries. Glaciers worldwide lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, equivalent to approximately one millimetre of global sea-level rise. The annual ice loss would have filled five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second throughout the year.
It was the fourth consecutive year in which all 19 glaciated regions worldwide recorded ice losses. The WMO warns that glacier retreat has serious implications for downstream communities, water resources, ecosystems and geohazards.
The report further states that the Earth's energy imbalance reached its highest observed level in 2025 since monitoring began in 1960, with preliminary measurements suggesting another record in 2026. The oceans, which absorb around 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, continue to warm, while global mean sea level has reached a new record.
The WMO also warns that the developing El Niño will multiply risks to agriculture, food security and human health through increased heat, drought and heavy rainfall. The World Health Organization has, for the first time, classified the anticipated health impacts as a health emergency.
Despite the increasingly alarming indicators, the report identifies improvements in early warning systems as an important opportunity to reduce disaster risks. The number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems increased from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.
The WMO stresses that sustained climate observations, reliable forecasts and effective early warning systems are increasingly essential to protecting lives and livelihoods.
The 2026 update uses data available through September and does not yet capture the full impacts of the developing El Niño. The final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is scheduled for publication in March 2027.
