The four big parties comprising the HLPC have already given their nod to rescheduling the election date, most likely to April or May, if there was commitment to poll participaion by the Mohan Baidya-led alliance, which has been actively boycotting the poll till now. So the question that looms is: Are the CPN-Maoist and its allies, who have been questioning the relevance of a new Constituent Assembly (CA) under the status quo, really committed to participating in fresh CA elections? [break]
Of the various 18 demands put to the HLPC, the CPN-Maoist has demanded that concrete grounds for polls must be created through a review of the various causes that led to the dissolution of the erstwhile CA. This is to ensure that a new CA would be able to deliver a new statute.
"The deferral of CA elections without any guarantee that the Baidya-led alliance is really committed to elections would only push the country towards fresh political uncertainty," argued political analyst Shyam Shrestha. Shrestha suggested to the major parties in the HLPC to take any decision to defer the poll only after reaching a consensus on all other demands put forth by the agitating alliance. "It would be so much the better if the election is held on the scheduled date of November 19. Deferring the date without reaching agreement on other issues may be counterproductive," he added.
Political analysts also say the Mohan Baidya-led Maoist party, which has formed an alliance of various 33 fringe parties, is in a serious dilemma whether to go to elections or not, mainly because of three considerations.
While its participation in the polls would make it difficult to justify the CPN-Maoist split from its mother party UCPN (Maoist), the Baidya Maoists also continue to be in a dilemma over which method--armed insurgency or traditional parliamentary politics-- to pursue to achieve its stated political goals. An equally big consideration the party has against the upcoming CA poll is that it may not be able to garner enough votes or CA seats, thereby leaving its bargaining power greatly diminished after the poll.
"I have serious doubts whether the Baidya-led alliance would participate in the poll even if the election is rescheduled to April or May. In ideological terms, it will be a political defeat for the CPN-Maoist if they choose to go for elections," argued political commentator Bishnu Sapkota.
However, the CPN-Maoist led alliance, during talks with the HLPC on Wednesday, expressed commitment to participating in the fresh poll if the election is deferred and certain other demands are also met.
"The deferral of elections per se should not be taken in a negative light if this ensures poll participation by all agitating parties including the Baidya-led alliance," Sapkota further argued.
There are strong apprehensions in various quarters that fresh CA polls would become uncertain if the November 19 polls are deferred as such deferral would invite fresh legal and constitutional difficulties. So much so that senior UCPN (Maoist) leader and former prime minister Dr Babu Ram Bhattarai said in public that the country would never see new CA elections if the poll is not held on the stated date of November 19.
Not many, however, buy this line of argument, and argue instead that only participation in the electoral process by all agitating parties would ensure meaningful elections and promulgation of a new statute through the new CA. "I do not think that such a situation [of the polls never materialising] will occur if all the political parties that are parties to the agreement stand united till the end," said Shyam Shrestha. "The sky will not fall just because the election is deferred for a few months."
Many argue that the Baidya-led alliance is not the sole cause behind the deferral of polls. The major parties in the HLPC themselves do not seem fully prepared for polls in November.
No matter what the reason behind the HLPC´s nod to rescheduling the poll date, political observers say the decision to defer polls should not be taken in a negative light if this brings about the participation of all in the poll.
"Our country is in need of a peaceful resolution of its political problems. We cannot afford any more conflict. Deferral of the election to bring the Baidya-led alliance on board could help resolve the political problems without resort to conflict," argued former chief election commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokharel.
Pokharel, however, cautioned that deferral of the poll could bring about both constitutional and other political problems. "But if there is political will among the parties, these can easily be overcome. The change of election date is not a big thing if this brings all agitating parties on board the electoral process."
As the HLPC steps up negotiations with various dissenting parties to bring them on board while also trying to meet their demands that include, among other things, fresh delineation of election constituencies based on population, dissolution of the HLPC and increasing the seats allocated under the proportional electoral system, the next few days will be crucial.
It will also be a test case whether the major political parties are able to persuade dissenting parties to join elections soon, if not on the stated date of November 19, in view of the pressing need for drafting a new constitution and ending the protracted political transition that began with the political change of 2006.
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