HONG KONG, May 10: The brief remarks made by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiyang Yu on deteriorating political situation in Nepal during a press briefing in Beijing on May 4 clearly hint at the new role China wants to assume in the changed context of balance of power in Nepal. She urged the political parties in Nepal to seek common grounds and properly handle internal differences through dialogues and consultation not only to the fundamental interests of Nepal but also to regional peace and stability.
China, which otherwise would choose not to speak on Nepal´s affairs, turned to be the first country to officially react to Nepal´s political confusions and Maoist general strike despite the fact that envoys from the US, India and European countries were active in piling pressure or mediating political parties to resolve the differences among the political parties.[break]
Though Jiyang stated at the beginning that China continues to adopt a policy of non-interference on internal affairs of other countries, her remarks are testimony that China will no longer remain mute on Nepal´s affairs.
There are some regional and international dimensions behind China´s breaking its silence. These are directly or indirectly linked to security of Tibet. The balance of power in South Asia has witnessed changes with the changes in the global power balance. The US which looked Nepal´s affairs through the eyes of India has lately become active. The policy change of China on Nepal in particular and South Asia in general is the consequence of new power balance in the aftermath of the US and India reaching a nuclear arms deal.
The issue of Tibet is very important for China. It is the same reason why Beijing wants to see a government in Nepal on whom it can exercise its influence.
Citing an instance that Nepal has become a regional center of new geopolitics, Nepali Times Editor Kunda Dixit in his piece entitled ´A New Himalayan Game´ has said that India and China had made an informal understanding on Nepal´s affairs some 22 years ago and that the relationship between the two countries has grown sour after the understanding was broken.
Beijing had agreed to accept the control of New Delhi over Nepal and Bhutan affairs in return of India accepting Chinese occupation in Tibet. This informal understanding was reached during a meeting between then Chinese leader* Deng Xiaoping and Indian premier Rajiv Gandhi in December, 1988.
According to the understanding touted as a milestone to ease the troubled relations between India and China, Beijing had reportedly agreed to allow India to put Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka in general and Nepal and Bhutan in particular under its control.
Dixit has made an analysis that the very understanding between New Delhi and Beijing has broken with the changes seen in balance of power of the world and anti-China demonstrations of Tibetan refugees that began in Kathmandu on the eve of Beijing Olympics two years ago.
China had concluded that India had largely failed to control active engagement of the US on Tibetan issues after Nepal Army recovered a flag that read Free Tibet from a bag of a US mountaineer. The mountaineer had planned to hoist the flag atop Everest. Beijing then initiated change in its Nepal policy concluding that US had furthered Free Tibet campaign from Nepal and that the old understanding with India no longer remained in force. Beijing then changed the entire team of its embassy in Kathmandu and began piling pressure on Nepal on the security issues of Tibet.
The remarks of newly appointed US Ambassador to Nepal Scott H DeLisi also make its clear that US has lately made its Kathmandu embassy active on Tibetan issue as well. During a parliamentary hearing three months ago, DeLisi had given interesting argument on how geopolitical importance of Nepal could be used to serve the US interest.
DeLisi, who holds considerably long diplomatic experience in South Asia, had argued that US could play important role on various regional issues including Tibetan refugees and that US could engage India in crossborder issues via Kathmandu. His remarks not only indicate strategic importance of Nepal but also reflect the desire of the US to remain active in Nepal. This is perhaps the reason why the US is extending its hands of relations with the Maoists. Though India has been denying anything such to happen since a year ago, the US recently took Maoist Foreign Relations Department Chief Krishna Bahadur Mahara for an official visit to the US and also hinted that it will remove the Maoists from its terrorist list.
Robert O Blake, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, was busy discussing with Chinese diplomats on Asian affairs in Beijing on the same day China officially spoke on Nepal´s political stalemate. One of the agenda of Blake´s discussion was the ongoing peace process in Nepal. Blake could have discussed with his Chinese counterparts about the possible Maoist revolt. And this is what made China to urge the Maoists to seek consensus.
Blake´s statement three days after Jiyang spoke on the Maoist strike was somewhat similar in content. In an interview with Press Trust of India on May 8, Blake said that India, China and the US have convergence of views on Nepal.*
Blake, who was recently in Nepal and met leaders of all the political parties including the Maoists, had said:"I think there is a broad convergence of views (on Nepal). China like the United States and India wants to see stability and prosperity in that important country (Nepal) for us." **
The US is trying to make its role effective with the Maoists by identifying a meeting point between the Chinese stance of encouraging the Maoists and Indian position of restricting them. DeLisi also urged the Maoists to withdraw strike, a position similar to that of India and China. This clearly suggests that the US wants to bring both India and China into confidence.
It is naïve to conclude that China will continue remaining silent on Nepal´s issues in the face of growing influence and engagement of India and the US here. The issue of Tibet is very important for China. It is the same reason why Beijing wants to see a government in Nepal on whom it can exercise its influence. This is evident from the fact that Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal was only one of the total 600 invitees from South Asia on the special interaction World Expo organized in Shanghai. But this does not mean that Dahal is inclined only to China. Dahal must have learnt a lesson after his government was forced to step largely due to his failure to maintain balanced diplomatic relations with India and China.
It will be an opportunity than challenge for Nepal to be a strategic centre for superpower and regional powers. It will not be an issue of headache if the new power balance lessens Indian hegemony on Nepal. Nevertheless, we need to be cautious not to let repetition of an understanding like that of 22 years ago´s. Though we do not have the capacity to completely stop the influence of superpowers we must demonstrate our capacity to cash in from this situation to serve our national interests.
(* Corrected. **Added. This version corrects Blake´s interview to PTI.)
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