Even with all its limitations, the 16-point agreement on June 9 among four of the five biggest parties represented in the second Constituent Assembly has to be considered a watershed in the nascent history of the federal democratic republic of Nepal. The course of consensus politics that started with the signing in 2005 of the 12-point Delhi agreement between then-Seven Party Alliance and the warring Maoist party has, in a way, come full circle with the June 8 accord. For the first time since the dissolution of the first Constituent Assembly on May 28, 2012 there is real hope that the long-delayed constitution could finally materialize. The four parties together have nearly 80 percent of CA seats, which, given the fractious politics of transitional Nepal, might be considered as close to absolute consensus as we will ever get. Optimism is high also because there have been substantive agreements on all potentially controversial constitutional issues, bar federalism. Even on this most divisive issue there has been an agreement to have eight federal provinces and to let a future 'Federal Commission' decide on their boundaries; their names will be settled by respective provincial assemblies. Again, perhaps this was as good an agreement as we could have gotten right now.But we also understand the concern of the Madheshi and Janajati parties when they suspect that deferral of this most important constitutional issue could be a ruse to dilute the federal agenda. And they seem determined to stop it. The June 8 deal was the primary reason for the merger on Monday between Upendra Yadav-led Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Nepal, Ashok Rai's Federal Socialist Party Nepal and Yubraj Karki's Khas Inclusive National Party. These and the other parties that have opposed the 16-point agreement are now threatening to walk out of the CA. It is now up to the four signatories to try to take these smaller outfits into confidence on new constitution. Although they may be fringe players in the second CA, they nevertheless represent sizable ethnic constituencies and their willful marginalization will only add to their support among these communities. So every effort should be made to win their confidence. But it surely is not a one-way street.
Most Madheshi parties have opposed the 16-point agreement. Yet they have not been able to present a credible alternate federal plan acceptable to a broad section of Nepalis. There is no doubt that the federal question should ideally have been settled right now; boundary delineation and nomenclature of federal states could very well be future flashpoints. But what was the alternative, really? Letting the constitutional process drag on would have needlessly distracted from the all-important task of rebuilding the country devastated by the Great Earthquake. And more time—if history is any guide—would only have added to confusions on important constitutional issues. So rather than blindly opposing the 16-point agreement, the opposition parties should rather be trying to incorporate their agenda within its framework. As harsh as it may sound, given their extremely limited mandate, this might be the only way they can stay relevant in Nepali politics.
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