KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 3: A coalition led by Malaysia's former ruling UMNO party may be on a path back to national power after winning back-to-back state elections, analysts say.
The coalition, Barisan Nasional, took control of Negeri Sembilan state in a vote on Saturday by teaming up with government opponents.
It secured a significant majority, inflicting a stinging defeat on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's ruling Pakatan Harapan alliance.
The result was Barisan Nasional's second state win in weeks, with analysts citing clever vote wrangling, and disaffection among some ethnic Chinese voters with one of the governing coalition's parties.
The state results were a warning to the prime minister, said Bridget Welsh, an expert on Malaysian politics at the University of Nottingham Malaysia.
"The bell is ringing. The bell is ringing so loud that they seem to be deaf," she told AFP.
State elections do not necessarily translate into success at the national level, and Anwar remains prime minister, the analyst said.
But Welsh said the prime minister had linked both campaigns to his leadership, and lost.
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"It was a test, and it's a test that they failed, and they failed quite significantly."
- Grip on power -
Barisan Nasional -- of which UMNO is the biggest political party -- ruled Malaysia for decades before losing power in 2018, brought down by a corruption scandal involving its leader at the time, Najib Razak, who is now in jail.
Political instability followed: three governments in quick succession until Anwar's coalition won the most seats in 2022, though not enough to govern alone.
Malaysia's king then asked him to form a "unity government" with his old rivals, including Barisan Nasional.
UMNO has long positioned itself as a champion of Malay political and economic interests.
By contrast, Anwar's People's Justice Party has built its support on a multiracial and secular base including members of the country's Malay, Chinese and Indian communities.
The results of the two state elections do not immediately alter Anwar's grip on power nationally, analysts said.
For one thing, Barisan Nasional is officially still part of the prime minister's governing coalition in parliament.
But the back-to-back state wins could encourage major shifts in political alliances ahead of the next general elections, due by February 2028.
Mohammad Azizuddin Muhammad Sani, a professor of politics and international relations at the Universiti Utara Malaysia, said he expects Anwar to delay calling the next general election for as long as possible.
If the current momentum was maintained, the Malaysian government's hold on power could be at risk in the next federal election, he said.
"Anwar will probably delay to make sure that the momentum does not continue," he said, adding, however, he did not believe Anwar could stop the "wave".
- Complex -
The political landscape in the Muslim-majority nation is complex.
Despite being Anwar's partner at the national level, Barisan Nasional ran against his party's candidates in Johor.
In Negeri Sembilan, it went further and defeated him by joining forces with Anwar's main opposition rivals, Perikatan Nasional, which is dominated by the conservative Malaysian Islamic Party.
Anwar's government has been praised for bringing political stability and technology investments to Malaysia, while successfully chairing the ASEAN bloc and hosting a visit by US President Donald Trump last year.
But analysts say voters are focused on bread-and-butter issues such as rising living costs, how Anwar delivers on reform promises, and Malaysia's Malay identity.
"Much of the development in data centres and others is not trickling down to ordinary people," said Welsh of the University of Nottingham Malaysia.
"I think that they live in a bubble, and they're also living in the past."
Welsh said Anwar's government thinks that Malaysians still see UMNO as they saw it in 2018, but the party had moved on under a new leadership.
"I think that what we're seeing is a post-Najib UMNO that is evolving and it's building its own legitimacy base among younger people and others, separate from the Najib campaign, Najib's legacy," Welsh said.
