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Major river flooding unlikely this year, say experts

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KATHMANDU, Aug 19: Although monsoon has matured across the country, experts are least worried about flooding in large river systems of Nepal. Weak surge of monsoon along with ongoing deficit monsoon rainfall in the country has scaled-back fear of river flooding this year.

"Although monsoon is still active across the country, almost all weather stations have reported deficit rainfall," said Raju Pradhananda, a meteorologist at Meteorological Forecasting Division (MFD) of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM).


Over three months have elapsed since the onset of monsoon in Nepal, but weather stations of Nepal have reported below normal rains. Out of 16 synoptic weather stations, 9 have recorded deficit rainfall.

Monsoon rain monitoring by the DHM shows deficit in Biratnagar, Dhankuta, Okhaldhunga, Janakpur, Kathmandu, Simra, Lumle, Pokhara, Bhairahawa and Surkhet.

On the other hand, rainfall has been above normal in Nepalgunj, Jumla, Dhagadhi and Taplejung. However, Pradhananda claims normal rain recorded by those stations were a result of a few days of extreme rainfall.

"Sporadic rain has been observed in many parts of the country. Heavy rainfalls have occurred in many places but they never lasted for long. We used to have continuous rainfall for at least 2-3 days in the past," said Pradhananda.

According to the DHM, it takes at least 60 mm of rainfall per hour for rivers to swell and breach their boundaries.

The flooding in the Bagmati River system in Kathmandu on Sunday evening was caused by similar phenomenon. Heavy downpour with more than 100 mm of rainfall in Sundarijal area hit the squatters living along the riverbeds but the rainfall had completely ceased by the morning.

"We were more concerned about the impact of possible flooding in the rivers in the Tarai region. But thankfully no such crisis unfolded," said Binod Parajuli, Hydrologist at Flood Forecasting Center of DHM.

The DHM considers 1,400 mm of rain as normal monsoon rainfall in Nepal, which usually kicks off from the second week of June.



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