The 12th General election in Bangladesh was held on January 7, despite protests and boycotts from opposition parties, specifically the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Sheikh Hasina, the incumbent prime minister and her party the Bangladesh Awami League secured a landslide victory in the election and formed the government for the fourth consecutive term with more than a two-thirds majority.
Amid the boycott of 18 parties, 29 participated in the election. After the Awami League’s 222 seats, the Jatiya Party finished a distant second with only 11 seats in the parliament. Though the opposition demanded the election to be held under a caretaker government after the resignation of the prime minister, the Election Commission repeatedly reiterated its commitment to holding the election in a free and fair manner as per the constitutional obligations. Despite fears of violence and various uncertainties, the Election Commission held a free and peaceful poll, foreign observers and media reported. Polls showed 41 percent vote cast, which is quite low compared to the election in 2018 and other previous elections. However, the voter turnout has seen a higher number than many analysts had predicted before the election.
After the elections, the US labeled the polls as not credible, free and fair. They said in a statement that the US supports the people of Bangladesh and their desire for democracy, freedom of peaceful demonstration and expression. The UK criticized the “acts of intimidation and violence” during the election. The West’s position was quite predictable as they had expressed their concerns repeatedly even before the elections. Prior to the polls, the US and its Western allies expressed their concerns over democratic conditions and holding a free and fair election in Bangladesh. The US has also taken several measures, including the imposition of a visa restriction on individuals accused of undermining democratic processes.
Immediately after the result, Russia and China congratulated Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her party's victory in the elections. Since the beginning of the electoral process, both rivals of the US expressed their support for holding a free and fair election as per the constitution and maintaining political and social stability.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Sheikh Hasina over the phone and congratulated her on her victory in the polls. In a post on X, PM Modi wrote, "I also congratulate the people of Bangladesh for the successful conduct of elections." Modi also expressed confidence in further strengthening the countries’ enduring and people-centric partnership. Awami League’s victory in the election is significant for India from various perspectives ranging from strategy to people-to-people connection. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said India is a “great friend” of Bangladesh and the two neighbors have resolved many problems bilaterally, a day after she won.
Unlike other great powers, before the polls, India was reluctant to comment on the Bangladesh election, saying it as Bangladesh’s internal matter. Emphasizing regional stability, Indian foreign secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra commented that India had shared its “perspective” on the neighboring country “very clearly” during the India-US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. “The election in Bangladesh is their internal matter, and it is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their future,” said Kwatra.
As Bangladesh’s strategic proximity to the Bay of Bengal turned it into a geopolitical hotspot for great powers, India, as the biggest player in the region and closest neighbor, has always had a keen eye on Bangladesh. Like the rest of South Asia, India is cautious about China’s increasing influence in Dhaka. Many Indian analysts expressed their concern over China’s growing influence over Bangladesh, as Bangladesh has granted massive investment opportunities for China in the country.
Although Bangladesh's economic relations with China have increased, India remains Bangladesh's strategic partner. Consequently, analysts say that while Bangladesh’s relationship with China is purely commercial, its relationship with India is strategic. Thus, despite China's growing economic footprint, India has adopted a parallel position with China on election issues to maintain its stable strategic relations with Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh continues to be the sole country in South Asia that can be regarded as a reliable strategic ally for New Delhi, while other nations in the region have gradually moved away from India's sphere of influence. India was unable to establish a strong presence among its neighboring countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives to counterbalance China. Hence, Indian Military Commentator Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (Retd) writes that, as in most countries in its neighborhood, India has put all its eggs in one basket in Dhaka. Thus, India believes that external pressure on Bangladesh could push it closer to China, which can have ramifications for the region.
Bangladesh’s reliability as a strategic partner in South Asia is evident in many Indian officials’ statements. Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma stated several times that India stands beside Bangladesh as a "steadfast partner" and is committed to supporting its aspirations for a "peaceful, prosperous, and inclusive" future. New Delhi believes that Sheikh Hasina has effectively prevented the spread of extremism in the region, and weakening the Awami League would only serve to embolden extremist and fundamentalist groups. Since Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009, India has successfully quelled separatist groups in the North-East region.
Thanks to a series of connectivity projects, Bangladesh has played a crucial role in the development of the underdeveloped North Eastern states of India. Bangladesh has recently allowed transit and transshipment through its two major seaports and Chittagong Shah Amanat International Airport, aiming to facilitate the transportation of goods to the landlocked region. In addition, the actions taken by the Bangladesh government against insurgent groups have played a significant role in maintaining stability in the north-eastern states.
In addition, there has been a substantial increase in India's economic engagement with Bangladesh through trade and bilateral cooperation. India's trade with Bangladesh has surged to $18 billion, with $16 billion worth of Indian exports to the country. This makes Bangladesh India's top trading partner in South Asia. India has provided a significant amount of financial support, totaling $8 billion, to develop transport infrastructure such as roads, railways, shipping, and ports. Last November, the two premiers, Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina, came together to inaugurate the Agartala-Akhaura railway line, the Khulna-Mongla port line, and unit II of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant. This event marked an important step forward in improving connectivity.
To conclude, India needs a reliable government in its neighbor, with which it shares the longest land boundary, to obtain its strategic goals by maintaining security and stability. It finds the quality only in Sheikh Hasina as she has been mindful of Indian sensitivities. Thus, New Delhi welcomes Hasina’s continuation as it’s a relief for India which she called in a recent statement, a next-door neighbor.
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