It was at this stage that the 12-point agreement gave them and the other signatories a breath of fresh air. The 12-point agreement was born out of the fight against the autocratic monarchy. If we are to look at the context in which the 12-point agreement was signed, we find that the Maoists were losing ground, Nepali Congress and the UML were cornered and India felt uncomfortable with the king’s China tilt. There was an urgency felt by India, the Maoists and the political parties to trim down an ambitious monarch.
The details of the agreement did not matter, so much so that to date the signatories cannot agree on what it means. In signing the pact, all involved had compromised their core ethos. The Nepali congress and the UML allied with a group that they themselves had denounced as a terrorist organization. The Maoists allied with their sworn enemies – the parties that believed in democracy and capitalism. In doing so they had denounced their aspirations for establishing communism in Nepal. Hence, from the start, it was an unholy alliance destined to doom.
As a result of the 12-point agreement, monarchy was relegated to the pages of history. Election to the Constituent Assembly was held, in which no single party gained clear-cut majority. The Maoists, not having renounced violence, reneged in their commitment to peace and instead of returning the seized properties, established a para-military wing called the Young Communist League (YCL).
Easy as it was to coin pleasing slogans, the Maoists soon discovered that achieving them was way out of their league. However, the Maoists must be given credit where due. They did manage to mobilize substantially increased revenue. But utilizing the new found resources productively was beyond them. This led to frustrations within the party leading to polarization between those advantaged by the Maoists coming to power and those that weren’t. It got to a stage where Pushpa Kamal Dahal had to find a respectable cause to quit the government in order to preserve unity within the party.
Alternatively, it has been argued that the reason for the untimely fall of the Maoist government was overplaying the bluff. With the hope that the party and the opposition would rally behind him to save the peace process, he created a scenario which allowed him to resign. What he had not expected was that the other parties, tired of the Maoists, would call his bluff and rally behind a single leader Madhav Kumar Nepal to replace him.
When the new government was formed without the Maoists, they did not believe it would last. Ironically, it was the fear of Maoists that held the coalition together. Soon it was evident to the Maoists that this seemingly impossible coalition may achieve what the Maoists couldn’t – the drafting of a new constitution. The Maoists reverted to what they knew best – disruption, coercion and violence. They halted the parliament and disrupted normal life in the country through strikes and demonstrations. They were able to halt the constitution drafting process until the deadline, but even this did not help them into power. So a new approach had to be found – the present mass rallies and indefinite shutdown.
The present protest can have five foreseeable exits. First, the movement storms the government and heralds Pushpa Kamal Dahal to power. Second, the movement withers out and the Maoists will have lost the decisive showdown. Both of these are unlikely scenarios. Third, a national alliance will be formed under the leadership of Nepali Congress or under a changed leadership of CPN-UML. Fourth, the Maoist party will lead the government under the leadership of a person other than Dahal. He has rejected both of these possibilities, though Madhav Kumar Nepal and other parties have been offering it, thereby reinforcing the argument that the present Maoist movement is aimed solely at projecting Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the only national leader around whom the state must rally, and this is the fifth exit to the stalemate. The first and the fifth options are understandably work in favor of Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Since the first option is less likely to receive international acceptance, the fifth option would be desirable for Pushpa Kamal Dahal.
The people of Nepal elected a hung assembly to power so that all concerns and voices would be raised during the process of drafting the constitution. The Maoists, Pushpa Kamal Dahal in particular, feared that the assembly could address the concerns of the people of Nepal and thereby sideline them. Hence he held it hostage and did not allow it to function. The third and the fourth options are therefore the most desirable ones for the country and the people. A national unity government must be formed – one that is capable of giving the people a new constitution that holds at its core the wellbeing of all of Nepal and not just a few groups.
rshrestha80@live.com
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