The big picture

Earthquake aftermath

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The initial estimate of the funds needed for immediate rehabilitation and reconstruction, now that rescue work has been officially closed, is anywhere between US $6 billion to $10 billion. This is nearly 50 percent of the country's GDP. There is no way Nepal will be able to put together such a vast sum. Thankfully, our international partners and the global NRN community have been extremely generous. The NRN UK community has reportedly amassed $2 billion. Cine star Rajesh Hamal has been able to secure pledges of another billion dollars during his fund-raising in the Netherlands. Another $100 million has been pledged by various bilateral and multilateral donors. At least in the initial phases of rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts, money should not be a problem, provided that our international partners follow through on their promise. This is important. The world today is a dangerous place and every other day there is news of a natural calamity somewhere. There is a risk that the world's attention, which is now trained on Nepal, could soon shift to other trouble spots.

But getting the pledged sums is only half the battle. How they are spent is as important. Since almost all the funds are being channeled through the PM's Disaster Relief Fund there are reasons to doubt they will be properly spent. The government bureaucracy is notoriously inefficient, and corrupt. This is why, it is said, as much as 90 percent of earmarked government funds end up in pockets of conniving middlemen. What is the guarantee the same won't happen with the earthquake cash pool? Our donors are thus asking for permission to spend aid money as they see fit. But this approach is, arguably, as risky. Again, according to anecdotal evidence, 60-70 percent of such funds are repatriated to donor countries in the form of consultant fees. What we rather need is for the government and donors to together work out common priority areas. To check misuse, all expenses will have to come under the overview of independent auditors.

It will be a long and treacherous road. Two-thirds of all buildings in the 15 worst affected districts have been damaged in one way or the other. This includes around 5,000 school buildings and as many health centers. The immediate priority, though, is rehabilitation of those who have lost everything: the former residents of the 200,000 houses that have been completely destroyed. The monsoon is only a couple of months away. Monsoon will not only add to the vulnerability of the buildings with cracks that are still standing; it will also complicate matters in worst-hit districts like Sindhupalchowk and Dolakha that are vulnerable to floods and landslides. The government most certainly won't be able to do it alone. For this reason the spirit of solidarity and philanthropy that has been in evidence in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake will have to be sustained for years to come. How do we mitigate the more immediate monsoon risks? What diplomatic channels will we exercise to keep donors interested in the long run? And how do we sustain the interest of the enthusiastic but fickle youth? There are no easy answers. But perhaps we could start by asking the right questions.