We are delighted that the discussions between the Big Three and the agitating Madheshi Morcha on federal demarcations is finally bearing fruit—after five, long months of deadlock. For the purpose, the two sides on Friday agreed to the formation of a high-level political mechanism before the start of the prime minister’s official India visit starting February 19th. The political mechanism’s TOR is to be worked by the next one week. We, too, believe Prime Minister Oli’s India visit would be more meaningful if he goes after settling domestic issues. If the TOR of the political mechanism can indeed be worked out by February 19th it would be a strong signal of the intent of our political class to collectively resolve domestic issues and clear the way for the country’s post-quake recovery and economic revival. And this is where our friends like India and China and other bilateral and multilateral donors can help Nepal the most.
It’s a disgrace that even as our two giant neighbors have sustained decades of above seven percent growth, Nepal continues to plod along at three to four percent, largely thanks to its seemingly interminable political instability. It’s also a matter of shame for Nepal that nine months after the April 25th earthquake last year, the vast majority of the 600,000 people who lost their homes continue to live in rickety tents, and often without even basic necessities. This is happening despite the fact that Nepal was able to secure a commitment of around US $4 billion—a huge sum by any standard—to rebuild destroyed infrastructure and rehabilitate families. So if the prime minister can lock in an agreement on the high-level political mechanism, the country can then focus on rehabilitation and credibly ask its foreign friends to chip in. Prime Minister Oli can then cash in on the goodwill and ask India to honor its US $1 billion commitment made at the donor meet last year. It could also clear the way for more mutually beneficial trade and investment deals with India.
The prime minister’s visit to China, which is expected to shortly follow his India trip, will also have a new meaning if he can go to Beijing after a settlement with Madheshi parties. This is why it is so important to settle our domestic issues first. Again, even though we heard the two sides in current negotiations make all the right noises in the last few days, an agreement on political mechanism is by no means assured. In the next few days there are likely to be heated exchanges to finalize its TOR. The Big Three are likely to push the Madheshi parties to agree with minor changes to the current federal demarcations; the Madheshi parties will again make their case for two Madhesh-only provinces; the Big Three will insist on a longer timeframe for the political body, the Madheshi parties will want more immediate solutions. But these are technical issues that should not be hard to solve if the two sides are serious about ending the protracted post-constitution crisis. The country has seen enough protests and instability in recent times. The two sides, we hope, are seriously considering giving Nepali people a much-needed respite.
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