As expected, Nepal's state restructuring has turned out to be a hornet's nest—you cannot leave it untouched because it hangs over you as the sword of Damocles; but you cannot handle it because the moment you try all hornets will fly toward you and sting you to death. Province demarcation has met same fate. People are better off with current five development region set-up. Ongoing protests and shutdowns across the country suggest the same. You may blame leaders' lack of foresight or demarcation ability. But people seem to have no desire for provinces that do not respect existing five-region format in some ways.
Protests have not been seen in places where districts have not been merged, or where existing map has not been changed. Take Chitwan, Makawanpur, Nawalparasi and Pyuthan. These are some of the districts that initially cheered the six-province model. The reason being that the boundaries of these districts remained unchanged.
Protests are centered in places where new demarcations have violated old map. Mid-western region is in turmoil because Surkhet—the trade hub and lifeline of mid-western economy—has been taken away. Rolpa is raging because it has been put in province six. The Far-west has already proved to be 'invincible.' Far-west and Mid-west both want to remain undivided. The rallying cry is: "Don't divide us, do anything but do not violate existing boundary."
In a surprising turn, Madheshi leaders themselves have started to speak in favor of linking Madhesh with hill—something Madheshi leaders were not even imagining until a month ago. Sarita Giri, a staunch supporter of a single autonomous east-west Madhesh province, lamented that province two has been delinked from China—the world's thriving economy and potential superpower. Even Upendra Yadav is fuming: "How will province two run? By selling paddy rice or from alms collected at Janaki temple?" Thanks to the late awakening, we are not going to get a viable province by rupturing interdependence of hill, mountain and Tarai.
Some interpret outpouring of protest as a four-party conspiracy to retain late Harka Gurung's five development regions. If only it were so. The best thing about five regions is that they link to both China and India. When these giant economies boom benefits trickle down to five regions. If we cannot capitalize on this geostrategic benefit, that's our fault. Any province model that does not take into consideration this fundamental reality is bound to land in controversy or be vehemently resisted.
The current mess in state restructuring, however, was long time coming. Nepal's federalism journey was fraught with troubles from day one. The 2006 Movement was against king Gyanendra (more than monarchy) and was focused on social and political inclusion, and ending decade-long misrule of Congress-UML combine. Then, Madhesh Movement happened and Girija Prasad Koirala agreed to federalism to placate agitating Madheshis. He is said to have had no clue about federalism. Federalism became a media debate only in 2012 after Far-West came to a grinding halt for "undivided Far-west," and Limbus, Tharus and Madheshis started demanding separate states.
By this time, people had become disillusioned with champions of federalism (Maoists and Madheshis). It began to inspire more fears than promise and hope. The votaries of ethnic federalism made matters worse. They argued that north–south states do not qualify as provinces. To speak against isolating Tarai plains (Hill people depend on Tarai for food and the people in the plains get herbs and hydro from the hills) was tantamount to perpetuating the hill rule. The meeting point was not sought.
Virtually every model floated so far has been rejected. UCPN (Maoist) proposed 14 provinces. Nobody liked it. State Restructuring Commission floated 11 provinces; Congress and UML rejected it outright. Four parties proposed eight provinces two months ago, leaving province demarcation to a federal commission. Madheshis and Janajatis rejected this. Now when the parties tried to settle demarcation and floated the six province-models, the whole country is astir. People have reached the conclusion that the five development region set up is better than any model presented so far.
Does the ongoing protest mark a U-turn in Nepal's federalism debate? Is the mood really building for return to the existing five region set up? I asked political analyst C K Lal. "In a way, yes" he told me on the phone, "but it would be wrong to describe it as failure of federalism agenda." "The agenda has become weak because Madheshis and Janajatis are in no position to materialize it. For the next few years, federalism will remain stagnant unless new forces arise to push it," says Lal.
Why did federalism lose its luster then? Why did the agenda become so weak? I approached another analyst Mumaram Khanal with this question. Khanal believes federalism once inspired hope. "People had thought it was a progressive issue because it was raised by forces perceived to be progressive but the parties so mishandled, misused and misinterpreted it that it began to be perceived as a threat," Khanal told this scribe. "The fascination with federalism is now gone."
We are at the crossroads of whether to accept five regions as five provinces, whether to let federalism dispute further drag the constitution process and transition or whether to settle it once and for all and move forward. It would be best if we forgot federalism and brought a concrete roadmap to address the concerns of the marginalized, the oppressed and the underrepresented. The state must ensure them jobs, economic opportunities and respect their language and culture.
Come to think of it, the first Constituent Assembly spent approximately Rs 9 billion. An estimated Rs 50 billion was spent for CA II elections alone. The total expenditure of CA II is yet to be calculated. In a way, we have already wasted Rs 60 billion rupees (this would be more than enough to complete the mid-hill, east-west highway) debating what to do and how to settle federalism. Apparently, no leader cares how costly federalism has already become.
Like it or not, federalism flame will continue to blaze for the next few years. When the 'undivided' movement passes, 'division' movement might follow. The parties will likely go for the easy solution: pretend that the hornet's nest does not exist and speak no evil of federalism. But this won't solve the problem.
"Referendum is the only way out," says Mumaram Khanal. That's a pragmatic solution. This is the only option that has not been tried. We have witnessed consequence of imposing federal model from Kathmandu. It would be pragmatic to let the people decide what kind of federal provinces they want or whether they want federalism at all. But even before that it will be crucial to work on yet another vital front: federalism education.
By design or default, a large mass of people have been given to understand federalism as a divisive scheme, much like splitting districts and regions into new ones. Forget the general public, even committed party cadres lack basic know-how of interstate relations, relation between federal government and provincial government and a range of other issues. It's not their fault. Federalism is a new experiment for Nepal. There are no manuals and guidelines to make things clear to people. Nor has there been healthy debate on federalism. Thus federalism education should be launched through media. This will help people make up their mind, for or against federalism.
This is the only option left. If we do not agree to it, let's keep hornet's nest, putting ourselves in a perpetual danger of being stung to death.
Twitter: @mahabirpaudyal
Man dies after being stung by hornets
