Earthquakes occur as a result of movement of the tectonic plates beneath the earth’s surface. It might come as a surprise to many that earthquakes occur almost daily because these plates are in constant motion, though on a miniscule scale. According to the real time data provided by the Earthquake Hazards Program of the United States Geological Survey, earthquakes of varied magnitude occur every day on all parts of the globe. Our own National Seismological Centre, which publishes information on earthquakes measuring 4.0 or more on Richter Scale, reported 15 earthquakes from all over the country for the year 2010. This number was 18 for 2009 and 24 for the year 2008.
Some seismologists opine that frequent earthquakes of smaller magnitudes are better as they help to release the energy built under the earth crust and at the same time do not cause significant damage. However, there are many others who do not want to rule out the possibility of the occurrence of big ones just because there were frequent tremors of small magnitude. Located on the boundary between Indian and Tibetan tectonic plates, Nepal lies in one of the seismically active zones. Experts on the seismology of Nepal believe that a big one similar to the one in Haiti and Chile last year or the one similar to the one during 1934, which devastated a large part of Kathmandu and is believed to recur every 70 years or so, is already due.
AWARE BUT DO NOT CARE
In the recent years, most of the informed and educated residents of the country – especially from the capital city – seem to have become aware that Nepal lies in a seismically active zone and that a mega earthquake hits the region every 70 years or so. Thanks to organizations like National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET) that train and educate people – from masons who build buildings to schoolchildren who are more vulnerable to a collapsing building – on earthquake safety.
But despite the fact that the third week of January (Magh 2nd) – coinciding with the day when the big one hit in 1934 – sees scores of programs and enormous media coverage on earthquake safety, the only one group that do not seem to be aware or rather “does not care” is the one who is actually capable of implementing the Rules and Regulations on earthquake safety. Experts acknowledge that Kathmandu has one of the best building codes in the world but they are as good as none if they are not implemented properly. Lately numerous high-rises have been added to Kathmandu’s landscape making the residents or the ones who occupy these properties vulnerable to earthquakes.
The impact of an earthquake is location specific. The same magnitude earthquake can have different impacts based upon the building strength and structures, quality of building materials, topography, soil composition, effective building codes and their proper implementation and of course efficient emergency response.
PREPAREDNESS IS THE KEY
Despite all the advancement in science and technology, scientists have yet not been able to efficiently predict earthquakes. The best and only option to save the lives and property in the unlikely event of an earthquake is to be prepared.
If we consider last year’s earthquakes, the casualties in Chile were far less than that of Haiti because of strict building codes and better preparedness and emergency response. Kathmandu being a lakebed and with over-extraction of groundwater, experts say, is vulnerable to land subsidence and liquefaction in an event of a similar earthquake.
Hence, in places like our country, it is more important to educate people on the do’s and don’ts pre, during and post an earthquake. Pre-earthquake preparedness, among others, should include identifying the composition of the soil to figure out the number of storey of the building the soil would withstand; strictly adhering to the implementation of the building codes. During earthquake, people should duck under a table, or a sturdy chair or bed; not come out of the building; keep themselves away from electricity wire or tall buildings; park by the side of the road away from electricity wire, trees, on or under the bridge, if they are driving. Post-earthquake preparedness includes helping the first responders/medic in their efforts to the extent possible or keeping the calm and letting the experts do their jobs.
Televisions and radio (both private and public) should run public interest infomercials on what to do and what not to do in an event of an earthquake. School/colleges and other buildings housing large numbers of people should train occupants on earthquake safety and periodically conduct random mock drills to test their surviving skills.
It should be noted that according to a study conducted by GeoHazard International in 2001, out of 21 seismically prone cities, Kathmandu ranked number one in the per capita earthquake lethality potential. Studies conducted by NSET show that most of our hospitals are in such a dilapidated condition that they will not be able to withstand the shocks of a medium- to high-magnitude earthquake. On top of this, the study also reveals that most of our hospitals are understaffed and they do not have sufficient equipments and resources.
It’s a pity that experts aren’t able to say for sure the magnitude of the devastation in absence of a comprehensive study. However, one thing is for sure that Kathmandu and some other rapidly expanding cities have haphazardly urbanized without any regard to urban planning – high rises without proper consideration to seismic vulnerability. The population of Kathmandu and some other cities have increased several folds increasing the number of houses that are clumped together or multiple families living in a single building.
Another pity is that we have only one international airport which is likely to not function properly after a medium- to high-level earthquake resulting in significant delay in international relief efforts, if there are any. Everybody knows the condition of the main highway that links the capital city with the rest of the country—relief efforts via this route in the aftermath of an earthquake could be extremely difficult if not impossible. The one and only option we have to mitigate the impacts of this ‘not if but when’ event is to properly follow experts’ advice and strictly enforce the rules and regulations related to earthquake preparedness. The sooner we heed their advice, the better.
kc.shandip@yahoo.com
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